CIN at ATL

Model (70.8%) and market (69.5%) align on Atlanta; no comparison either way but the side is defensible. Sale's 2.18 ERA and 10.89 K/9 against a Cin...

Model 59.2% and market 61.3% essentially agree on Detroit; no comparison to exploit but the side is defensible. Valdez brings 168.7 IP of workload...

Model (59.2%) and market (61.4%) agree on the Cubs, so no reason to fight it; Gausman's 172 IP and 9.26 K/9 outclass Gusto's 1.44 WHIP. The total i...

Model (56.2%) and market (54.4% implied) align on Boston, and Gray's 2.82 ERA / 1.16 WHIP over 163 IP is a real comparison on Griffin's 3.67 / 1.19...

Model has SFG at 54.5% against a market implying 43% — an 11-point gap I can't justify. Perdomo has only 3 starts and a 1.50 WHIP in 19.1 IP, so hi...

Model takes KCR despite a 67-90 record, 3.8 RPG and .518 OPS against a CHW club at 5.9 RPG and .729 OPS - the offense/defense mismatch flag is doin...

Model has OAK at 52.6% vs market's 45.2%, and the starter gap argues against it: Ureña at 2.74 ERA/1.21 WHIP over 144.1 IP versus Springs at 6.18 E...

Model lands on STL at 50.4% while market implies 55.9% home; the offense_defense_mismatch flag fires and I side with the market. Bachar (3.56 ERA,...

Market is pick'em and the model barely leans NYM at 51.9%, so there's no real comparison. McLean's 3.18 ERA and 1.19 WHIP are the one clean signal,...