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MLB player props

Pitcher prop forecasts.

Model-projected strikeout and hits-allowed counts with over probabilities for every confirmed probable starter, shown against the latest pregame market line. These are forecasts for context, not betting picks. More prop markets and sports will join this board as their models come online.

MLB props / 2026-09-08 / 30 starters
Market
Lines
CLE at BAL / Final / frozen pregame forecast
Tanner BibeeCLE starter / away
Projected K5.0
Best price at 5.55.5O +128 betonlineag / U -150 betmgm5 books at this line
Model over 5.539%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.596%
O 2.587%
O 3.573%
O 4.556%
O 5.539%
O 6.525%
O 7.515%
O 8.58%
O 9.54%
O 10.52%
O 11.51%

Model probability that the starter exceeds each strikeout line.

Brandon YoungBAL starter / home
Projected K4.8
Best price at 3.53.5O -135 betonlineag / U +119 draftkings6 books at this line
Model over 3.570%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.595%
O 2.585%
O 3.570%
O 4.552%
O 5.536%
O 6.522%
O 7.512%
O 8.57%
O 9.53%
O 10.51%
O 11.51%

Model probability that the starter exceeds each strikeout line.

HOU at PHI / Final / frozen pregame forecast
Hayden WesneskiHOU starter / away
Projected K4.2
Best price at 3.53.5O -118 betrivers / U +105 betonlineag6 books at this line
Model over 3.560%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.592%
O 2.578%
O 3.560%
O 4.541%
O 5.525%
O 6.514%
O 7.57%
O 8.53%
O 9.51%
O 10.51%
O 11.50%

Model probability that the starter exceeds each strikeout line.

Andrew PainterPHI starter / home
Projected K5.0
Best price at 4.54.5O -122 fanduel / U +110 draftkings7 books at this line
Model over 4.555%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.595%
O 2.586%
O 3.572%
O 4.555%
O 5.538%
O 6.524%
O 7.514%
O 8.58%
O 9.54%
O 10.52%
O 11.51%

Model probability that the starter exceeds each strikeout line.

NYM at MIA / Final / frozen pregame forecast
Sean ManaeaNYM starter / away
Projected K4.6
Best price at 5.55.5O +130 bovada / U -159 draftkings5 books at this line
Model over 5.531%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.594%
O 2.582%
O 3.566%
O 4.548%
O 5.531%
O 6.518%
O 7.510%
O 8.55%
O 9.52%
O 10.51%
O 11.50%

Model probability that the starter exceeds each strikeout line.

Sandy AlcantaraMIA starter / home
Projected K4.7
Best price at 4.54.5O +100 betrivers / U -120 bovada7 books at this line
Model over 4.549%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.594%
O 2.583%
O 3.567%
O 4.549%
O 5.533%
O 6.520%
O 7.511%
O 8.56%
O 9.53%
O 10.51%
O 11.50%

Model probability that the starter exceeds each strikeout line.

MIN at DET / Final / frozen pregame forecast
Dean KremerMIN starter / away
Projected K4.9
Best price at 4.54.5O +102 draftkings / U -125 betmgm6 books at this line
Model over 4.553%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.595%
O 2.586%
O 3.571%
O 4.553%
O 5.537%
O 6.523%
O 7.513%
O 8.57%
O 9.53%
O 10.52%
O 11.51%

Model probability that the starter exceeds each strikeout line.

Drew AndersonDET starter / home
Projected K4.1
Best price at 4.54.5O -120 betmgm / U +105 bovada5 books at this line
Model over 4.539%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.591%
O 2.577%
O 3.558%
O 4.539%
O 5.524%
O 6.513%
O 7.56%
O 8.53%
O 9.51%
O 10.50%
O 11.50%

Model probability that the starter exceeds each strikeout line.

LAA at BOS / Final / frozen pregame forecast
Reid DetmersLAA starter / away
Projected K5.5
Best price at 5.55.5O -136 betrivers / U +111 draftkings6 books at this line
Model over 5.547%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.597%
O 2.590%
O 3.579%
O 4.563%
O 5.547%
O 6.532%
O 7.520%
O 8.512%
O 9.56%
O 10.53%
O 11.52%

Model probability that the starter exceeds each strikeout line.

Patrick SandovalBOS starter / home
Projected K5.2
Best price at 5.55.5O -142 fanduel / U +120 betrivers6 books at this line
Model over 5.542%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.596%
O 2.588%
O 3.575%
O 4.559%
O 5.542%
O 6.528%
O 7.517%
O 8.59%
O 9.55%
O 10.52%
O 11.51%

Model probability that the starter exceeds each strikeout line.

COL at NYY / Final / frozen pregame forecast
Gabriel HughesCOL starter / away
Projected K4.1
Best price at 4.54.5O +128 betrivers / U -149 betonlineag6 books at this line
Model over 4.539%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.591%
O 2.577%
O 3.558%
O 4.539%
O 5.524%
O 6.513%
O 7.56%
O 8.53%
O 9.51%
O 10.50%
O 11.50%

Model probability that the starter exceeds each strikeout line.

Cam SchlittlerNYY starter / home
Projected K7.3
Best price at 7.57.5O -128 fanduel / U +118 betonlineag7 books at this line
Model over 7.545%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.599%
O 2.597%
O 3.592%
O 4.584%
O 5.572%
O 6.559%
O 7.545%
O 8.532%
O 9.522%
O 10.514%
O 11.58%

Model probability that the starter exceeds each strikeout line.

TBR at ATL / Final / frozen pregame forecast
Freddy PeraltaTBR starter / away
Projected K4.5
Best price at 4.54.5O -116 betonlineag / U +100 draftkings6 books at this line
Model over 4.546%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.593%
O 2.581%
O 3.564%
O 4.546%
O 5.530%
O 6.517%
O 7.59%
O 8.55%
O 9.52%
O 10.51%
O 11.50%

Model probability that the starter exceeds each strikeout line.

AJ Smith-ShawverATL starter / home
Projected K3.7
Best price at 3.53.5O -136 fanduel / U +111 draftkings4 books at this line
Model over 3.551%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.588%
O 2.571%
O 3.551%
O 4.532%
O 5.518%
O 6.59%
O 7.54%
O 8.52%
O 9.51%
O 10.50%
O 11.50%

Model probability that the starter exceeds each strikeout line.

CHC at MIL / Final / frozen pregame forecast
David PetersonCHC starter / away
Projected K4.6
Best price at 4.54.5O +125 betonlineag / U -140 betmgm6 books at this line
Model over 4.548%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.594%
O 2.583%
O 3.566%
O 4.548%
O 5.532%
O 6.519%
O 7.510%
O 8.55%
O 9.52%
O 10.51%
O 11.50%

Model probability that the starter exceeds each strikeout line.

Jacob MisiorowskiMIL starter / home
Projected K8.2
Best price at 8.58.5O +128 betonlineag / U -146 fanduel4 books at this line
Model over 8.543%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.5100%
O 2.598%
O 3.595%
O 4.590%
O 5.581%
O 6.569%
O 7.556%
O 8.543%
O 9.531%
O 10.522%
O 11.514%

Model probability that the starter exceeds each strikeout line.

ARI at KCR / Final / frozen pregame forecast
Corbin BurnesARI starter / away
Projected K3.9
Best price at 2.52.5O -156 betonlineag / U +140 draftkings5 books at this line
Model over 2.574%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.589%
O 2.574%
O 3.554%
O 4.535%
O 5.520%
O 6.511%
O 7.55%
O 8.52%
O 9.51%
O 10.50%
O 11.50%

Model probability that the starter exceeds each strikeout line.

Michael WachaKCR starter / home
Projected K4.5
Best price at 4.54.5O +139 betonlineag / U -155 betmgm5 books at this line
Model over 4.547%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.593%
O 2.582%
O 3.565%
O 4.547%
O 5.530%
O 6.518%
O 7.510%
O 8.55%
O 9.52%
O 10.51%
O 11.50%

Model probability that the starter exceeds each strikeout line.

PIT at CHW / Final / frozen pregame forecast
Bubba ChandlerPIT starter / away
Projected K4.2
Best price at 4.54.5O +105 betonlineag / U -120 betmgm7 books at this line
Model over 4.541%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.592%
O 2.578%
O 3.560%
O 4.541%
O 5.526%
O 6.514%
O 7.57%
O 8.53%
O 9.51%
O 10.51%
O 11.50%

Model probability that the starter exceeds each strikeout line.

Sean BurkeCHW starter / home
Projected K6.1
Best price at 6.56.5O -106 betrivers / U -105 draftkings6 books at this line
Model over 6.540%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.598%
O 2.593%
O 3.584%
O 4.571%
O 5.556%
O 6.540%
O 7.527%
O 8.517%
O 9.510%
O 10.55%
O 11.53%

Model probability that the starter exceeds each strikeout line.

TEX at SEA / In progress / frozen pregame forecast
Cal QuantrillTEX starter / away
Projected K4.6
Best price at 4.54.5O -104 fanduel / U -108 draftkings4 books at this line
Model over 4.548%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.594%
O 2.582%
O 3.566%
O 4.548%
O 5.531%
O 6.519%
O 7.510%
O 8.55%
O 9.52%
O 10.51%
O 11.50%

Model probability that the starter exceeds each strikeout line.

Bryce MillerSEA starter / home
Projected K4.8
Best price at 5.55.5O +126 fanduel / U -140 draftkings4 books at this line
Model over 5.535%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.594%
O 2.584%
O 3.569%
O 4.551%
O 5.535%
O 6.521%
O 7.512%
O 8.56%
O 9.53%
O 10.51%
O 11.51%

Model probability that the starter exceeds each strikeout line.

WSN at SDP / In progress / frozen pregame forecast
Riley CornelioWSN starter / awayThin data
Projected K3.1
Market line · pregameN/ANo two-sided pregame line
Model over lineN/A
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.581%
O 2.560%
O 3.538%
O 4.521%
O 5.510%
O 6.55%
O 7.52%
O 8.51%
O 9.50%
O 10.50%
O 11.50%

Model probability that the starter exceeds each strikeout line.

Casey MizeSDP starter / home
Projected K3.7
Best price at 4.54.5O -105 fanatics / U +100 betonlineag5 books at this line
Model over 4.532%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.588%
O 2.571%
O 3.551%
O 4.532%
O 5.518%
O 6.59%
O 7.54%
O 8.52%
O 9.51%
O 10.50%
O 11.50%

Model probability that the starter exceeds each strikeout line.

TOR at OAK / In progress / frozen pregame forecast
José SorianoTOR starter / away
Projected K4.5
Best price at 5.55.5O +139 betonlineag / U -154 fanduel4 books at this line
Model over 5.530%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.593%
O 2.582%
O 3.565%
O 4.547%
O 5.530%
O 6.518%
O 7.510%
O 8.55%
O 9.52%
O 10.51%
O 11.50%

Model probability that the starter exceeds each strikeout line.

Jack PerkinsOAK starter / home
Projected K4.4
Best price at 4.54.5O +124 fanduel / U -149 draftkings3 books at this line
Model over 4.545%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.593%
O 2.581%
O 3.564%
O 4.545%
O 5.529%
O 6.517%
O 7.59%
O 8.54%
O 9.52%
O 10.51%
O 11.50%

Model probability that the starter exceeds each strikeout line.

STL at SFG / In progress / frozen pregame forecast
Quinn MathewsSTL starter / away
Projected K4.6
Best price at 5.55.5O +120 fanatics / U -113 draftkings6 books at this line
Model over 5.531%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.594%
O 2.582%
O 3.566%
O 4.548%
O 5.531%
O 6.519%
O 7.510%
O 8.55%
O 9.52%
O 10.51%
O 11.50%

Model probability that the starter exceeds each strikeout line.

Landen RouppSFG starter / home
Projected K4.0
Best price at 4.54.5O -163 draftkings / U +134 betonlineag3 books at this line
Model over 4.537%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.590%
O 2.575%
O 3.556%
O 4.537%
O 5.522%
O 6.512%
O 7.56%
O 8.52%
O 9.51%
O 10.50%
O 11.50%

Model probability that the starter exceeds each strikeout line.

CIN at LAD / In progress / frozen pregame forecast
Nick LodoloCIN starter / away
Projected K3.9
Best price at 3.53.5O -154 fanduel / U +130 betonlineag3 books at this line
Model over 3.555%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.590%
O 2.574%
O 3.555%
O 4.536%
O 5.521%
O 6.511%
O 7.55%
O 8.52%
O 9.51%
O 10.50%
O 11.50%

Model probability that the starter exceeds each strikeout line.

Tarik SkubalLAD starter / home
Projected K8.2
Best price at 8.58.5O +118 draftkings / U -120 fanatics6 books at this line
Model over 8.543%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.5100%
O 2.598%
O 3.595%
O 4.590%
O 5.581%
O 6.569%
O 7.557%
O 8.543%
O 9.532%
O 10.522%
O 11.514%

Model probability that the starter exceeds each strikeout line.

Strikeout forecasts are model projections for confirmed probable starters, not betting picks. In our own evaluation the market closing line has been the sharper forecaster. Market lines and odds are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Best price compares books only at the consensus line. A scratched or replaced starter voids the forecast for that pitcher. Completed games show the actual strikeouts next to each forecast for calibration — these were context, never graded picks.

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