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NYY 5 / WSN 3
NYYNew York Yankees44%
WSNWashington Nationals56%

at Nationals Park

Live MLB Moneyline

Updated
NYYAway starterRyan WeathersConfirmed
Model pickWSN moneyline56%Model 20260706_auto
WSNHome starterCarson PalmquistConfirmed
NYY44%ML -156
Base model probability56%Moneyline only
Market-implied probability42%Selected moneyline pick
WSN56%ML +130

Market-implied probability is estimated from the listed MLB moneyline after removing sportsbook margin. This is market context, not betting advice.

AI Analyst Insight

AI agreementAnalyst disagrees with base model
AI rank#1
Total leanUnder
Model-market gap14.4 pts

Model has WSN 56% vs market 41% — a 15-point gap flagged as large disagreement. Palmquist's 7.11 ERA in 6.3 IP (9 starts) suggests he's not starting full games; Weathers' 4.29 ERA over 92 IP is established. Yankees offense struggling at 3.9 RPG but market knows this. Model total 9.33 vs market 10.0 suggests under lean; Nationals Park slight pitcher park supports this.

Large model-market gap

Projection Context

Projected margin0.5
Projected total9.3
Market total10.0
Total leanUnder

Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.

Pitcher Strikeout Forecast

Final / frozen pregame forecast / Updated
Market
Lines
Ryan WeathersNYY starter / away
Projected K5.0Actual 6 K / Over 5.5
Best price at 5.55.5O +112 fanduel / U -133 draftkings7 books at this line
Model over 5.539%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.595%over
O 2.587%over
O 3.572%over
O 4.555%over
O 5.539%over
O 6.525%under
O 7.514%under
O 8.58%under
O 9.54%under
O 10.52%under
O 11.51%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 6 strikeouts.

Carson PalmquistWSN starter / home
Projected K3.7Actual 4 K
Market lineN/ANo two-sided pregame line
Model over lineN/A
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.588%over
O 2.571%over
O 3.551%over
O 4.532%under
O 5.518%under
O 6.59%under
O 7.54%under
O 8.52%under
O 9.51%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 4 strikeouts.

Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.

Odds & Market Context

Market consensus-156 / +130NYY / WSN moneyline
Run line context1.5 (-118)Home spread price shown for context
Total context10.0O -111 / U -110
33 books32 ML24 run line23 total