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TBR 0 / TEX 6
TBRTampa Bay Rays47%
TEXTexas Rangers53%

at Globe Life Field

Live MLB Moneyline

Updated
TBRAway starterShane McClanahanConfirmed
Model pickTEX moneyline53%Model 20260831_auto
TEXHome starterCal QuantrillConfirmed
TBR47%ML -125
Base model probability53%Moneyline only
TEX53%ML +107

AI Analyst Insight

AI agreementAnalyst disagrees with base model
AI rankUnranked
Total lean · analyst-timeUnder
Model-market gap · analyst-time7.0 pts

Model has TEX at 53.4% against a market implying 46.4%; the better team by record (83-56) and OPS (.802 vs .698) is Tampa Bay, and McClanahan's 8.2 K/9 with a 1.11 WHIP edges Quantrill's 6.83 K/9. Both starters under 3.50 ERA argues the model's 9.00-run total is a run high versus the market's 8.0, even in a 1.04 park.

ace matchup

Projection Context

Projected margin0.1
Projected total9.0
Market total7.5
Total leanOver

Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.

Pitcher Strikeout Forecast

Final / frozen pregame forecast / Updated
Market
Lines
Shane McClanahanTBR starter / away
Projected K4.1Actual 3 K / Under 4.5
Best price at 4.54.5O -120 betmgm / U +119 draftkings6 books at this line
Model over 4.539%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.591%over
O 2.576%over
O 3.558%under
O 4.539%under
O 5.523%under
O 6.513%under
O 7.56%under
O 8.53%under
O 9.51%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 3 strikeouts.

Cal QuantrillTEX starter / home
Projected K3.9Actual 5 K / Over 3.5
Best price at 3.53.5O +130 betmgm / U -149 draftkings5 books at this line
Model over 3.554%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.589%over
O 2.574%over
O 3.554%over
O 4.535%over
O 5.521%under
O 6.511%under
O 7.55%under
O 8.52%under
O 9.51%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 5 strikeouts.

Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.

Odds & Market Context Closing odds

Market consensus-125 / +107TBR / TEX moneyline
Run line context1.5 (-160)Home spread price shown for context
Total context7.5O -117 / U -103
33 books32 ML25 run line24 total