MLB / mlb / live
MIL 1 / STL 5MILMilwaukee Brewers57%
STLSt. Louis Cardinals43%
at Busch Stadium
Live MLB Moneyline
UpdatedMILAway starterKyle HarrisonConfirmed
Model pickMIL moneyline57%Model 20260706_auto
STLHome starterMichael McGreevyConfirmed
MIL57%ML -150
Base model probability57%Moneyline only
Market-implied probability57%Selected moneyline pick
STL43%ML +125
Market-implied probability is estimated from the listed MLB moneyline after removing sportsbook margin. This is market context, not betting advice.
Projection Context
Projected margin0.9
Projected total9.0
Market total8.0
Total leanOver
Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.
Pitcher Strikeout Forecast
Final / frozen pregame forecast / UpdatedMarket
Lines
Kyle HarrisonMIL starter / away
Projected K5.1Actual 2 K / Under 5.5
Best price at 5.55.5O +125 draftkings / U -150 fanatics7 books at this line
Model over 5.541%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.596%over
O 2.588%under
O 3.574%under
O 4.558%under
O 5.541%under
O 6.526%under
O 7.516%under
O 8.59%under
O 9.54%under
O 10.52%under
O 11.51%under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 2 strikeouts.
Michael McGreevySTL starter / home
Projected K3.8Actual 6 K / Over 3.5
Best price at 3.53.5O -108 betrivers / U -103 betonlineag7 books at this line
Model over 3.551%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.588%over
O 2.571%over
O 3.551%over
O 4.533%over
O 5.518%over
O 6.59%under
O 7.54%under
O 8.52%under
O 9.51%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 6 strikeouts.
Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.
Odds & Market Context
Market consensus-150 / +125MIL / STL moneyline
Run line context1.5 (-137)Home spread price shown for context
Total context8.0O -115 / U -105
33 books32 ML24 run line23 total