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ATL 1 / STL 2
ATLAtlanta Braves47%
STLSt. Louis Cardinals53%

at Busch Stadium

Live MLB Moneyline

Updated
ATLAway starterChris SaleConfirmed
Model pickSTL moneyline53%Model 20260706_auto
STLHome starterKyle LeahyConfirmed
ATL47%ML -164
Base model probability53%Moneyline only
Market-implied probability40%Selected moneyline pick
STL53%ML +137

Market-implied probability is estimated from the listed MLB moneyline after removing sportsbook margin. This is market context, not betting advice.

AI Analyst Insight

AI agreementAnalyst disagrees with base model
AI rank#2
Total leanOver
Model-market gap12.2 pts

Model gives STL 52.7% vs market's 39.7%, a 13-point gap favoring the home dog. Sale's 2.27 ERA and 10.61 K/9 over 95 IP is elite; Leahy's 3.86 ERA and 1.45 WHIP in 86 IP is replacement-level. ATL's 6.4 RPG offense vs STL's 5.3 supports the away side. Market correct here; lean ATL and over the 8.0 total in a slight pitcher's park.

Large model-market gapoffense defense mismatch

Projection Context

Projected margin0.2
Projected total8.9
Market total8.0
Total leanOver

Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.

Pitcher Strikeout Forecast

Final / frozen pregame forecast / Updated
Market
Lines
Chris SaleATL starter / away
Projected K6.0Actual 5 K / Under 6.5
Best price at 6.56.5O +116 fanduel / U -141 betrivers6 books at this line
Model over 6.540%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.598%over
O 2.593%over
O 3.584%over
O 4.571%over
O 5.555%under
O 6.540%under
O 7.527%under
O 8.517%under
O 9.510%under
O 10.55%under
O 11.53%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 5 strikeouts.

Kyle LeahySTL starter / home
Projected K4.2Actual 2 K / Under 3.5
Best price at 3.53.5O -150 betmgm / U +121 draftkings7 books at this line
Model over 3.560%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.592%over
O 2.579%under
O 3.560%under
O 4.542%under
O 5.526%under
O 6.514%under
O 7.57%under
O 8.53%under
O 9.52%under
O 10.51%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 2 strikeouts.

Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.

Odds & Market Context

Market consensus-164 / +137ATL / STL moneyline
Run line context1.5 (-125)Home spread price shown for context
Total context8.0O -110 / U -110
33 books32 ML24 run line23 total