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TEX 10 / SEA 5
TEXTexas Rangers44%
SEASeattle Mariners56%

at T-Mobile Park

Live MLB Moneyline

Updated
TEXAway starterCal QuantrillConfirmed
Model pickSEA moneyline56%Model 20260907_auto
SEAHome starterBryce MillerConfirmed
TEX44%ML +105
Base model probability56%Moneyline only
SEA56%ML -125

AI Analyst Insight

AI agreementAnalyst agrees with base model
AI rank#10
Total lean · analyst-timeUnder
Model-market gap · analyst-time6.5 pts

Both starters are TBD with fallback stat lines, so neither side's projection is trustworthy. Market has SEA at 54.6% vs model 61.1%; I side with the market's smaller comparison and take SEA only as a lean. T-Mobile at 0.855 park factor plus TEX's .698 OPS supports under 8.0 despite their 5.2 RPG.

pitcher data fallbackoffense defense mismatchextreme park

Projection Context

Projected margin0.4
Projected total8.6
Market total7.5
Total leanOver

Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.

Pitcher Strikeout Forecast

In progress / frozen pregame forecast / Updated
Market
Lines
Cal QuantrillTEX starter / away
Projected K4.6
Best price at 4.54.5O -104 fanduel / U -108 draftkings4 books at this line
Model over 4.548%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.594%
O 2.582%
O 3.566%
O 4.548%
O 5.531%
O 6.519%
O 7.510%
O 8.55%
O 9.52%
O 10.51%
O 11.50%

Model probability that the starter exceeds each strikeout line.

Bryce MillerSEA starter / home
Projected K4.8
Best price at 5.55.5O +126 fanduel / U -140 draftkings4 books at this line
Model over 5.535%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.594%
O 2.584%
O 3.569%
O 4.551%
O 5.535%
O 6.521%
O 7.512%
O 8.56%
O 9.53%
O 10.51%
O 11.51%

Model probability that the starter exceeds each strikeout line.

Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.

Odds & Market Context Closing odds

Market consensus+105 / -125TEX / SEA moneyline
Run line context-1.5 (+164)Home spread price shown for context
Total context7.5O -105 / U -114
33 books31 ML24 run line24 total