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OAK 7 / SEA 4
OAKOakland Athletics47%
SEASeattle Mariners53%

at T-Mobile Park

Live MLB Moneyline

Updated
OAKAway starterJack PerkinsConfirmed
Model pickSEA moneyline53%Model 20260831_auto
SEAHome starterKade AndersonConfirmed
OAK47%ML +180
Base model probability53%Moneyline only
SEA53%ML -216

AI Analyst Insight

AI agreementAnalyst agrees with base model
AI rankUnranked
Total lean · analyst-timeUnder
Model-market gap · analyst-time12.1 pts

Market implies 65.4% for Seattle vs the model's 53.4% — a 12-point gap I side with the market on, given Perkins' 6.42 ERA and 1.49 WHIP in 95.1 IP. Anderson's 2 starts/10 IP is too thin to fade Seattle at home. Model's 9.09-run total ignores T-Mobile's 0.855 park factor; 7.0 line leans under.

Large model-market gaptotal far from marketextreme park

Projection Context

Projected margin0.0
Projected total9.1
Market total7.5
Total leanOver

Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.

Pitcher Strikeout Forecast

Final / frozen pregame forecast / Updated
Market
Lines
Jack PerkinsOAK starter / away
Projected K5.1Actual 7 K / Over 5.5
Best price at 5.55.5O +100 betmgm / U -120 bovada6 books at this line
Model over 5.540%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.596%over
O 2.587%over
O 3.573%over
O 4.557%over
O 5.540%over
O 6.525%over
O 7.515%under
O 8.58%under
O 9.54%under
O 10.52%under
O 11.51%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 7 strikeouts.

Kade AndersonSEA starter / home
Projected K4.7Actual 3 K / Under 5.5
Best price at 5.55.5O -142 fanduel / U +112 fanduel4 books at this line
Model over 5.534%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.594%over
O 2.584%over
O 3.568%under
O 4.550%under
O 5.534%under
O 6.521%under
O 7.511%under
O 8.56%under
O 9.53%under
O 10.51%under
O 11.51%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 3 strikeouts.

Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.

Odds & Market Context Closing odds

Market consensus+180 / -216OAK / SEA moneyline
Run line context-1.5 (+105)Home spread price shown for context
Total context7.5O -104 / U -115
33 books32 ML25 run line24 total