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STL 1 / SFG 2
STLSt. Louis Cardinals54%
SFGSan Francisco Giants46%

at Oracle Park

Live MLB Moneyline

Updated
STLAway starterQuinn MathewsConfirmed
Model pickSTL moneyline54%Model 20260907_auto
SFGHome starterLanden RouppConfirmed
STL54%ML -110
Base model probability54%Moneyline only
SFG46%ML -108

AI Analyst Insight

AI agreementAnalyst disagrees with base model
AI rank#7
Total lean · analyst-timeUnder
Model-market gap · analyst-time4.5 pts

Model's 9.36-run total is nearly two runs above the 7.5 market line despite Oracle Park's 0.906 park factor being its own top negative total feature - a structural miss. Side is close to a coin flip (market implies 50.5% home), but Roupp's 144.7 IP at 4.17 ERA is a steadier profile than Mathews' 24.7 IP with a 1.58 WHIP, so slight home lean.

total far from market

Projection Context

Projected margin0.5
Projected total9.6
Market total7.5
Total leanOver

Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.

Pitcher Strikeout Forecast

Final / frozen pregame forecast / Updated
Market
Lines
Quinn MathewsSTL starter / away
Projected K4.6
Best price at 5.55.5O +120 fanatics / U -113 draftkings6 books at this line
Model over 5.531%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.594%
O 2.582%
O 3.566%
O 4.548%
O 5.531%
O 6.519%
O 7.510%
O 8.55%
O 9.52%
O 10.51%
O 11.50%

Model probability that the starter exceeds each strikeout line.

Landen RouppSFG starter / home
Projected K4.0
Best price at 4.54.5O -163 draftkings / U +134 betonlineag3 books at this line
Model over 4.537%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.590%
O 2.575%
O 3.556%
O 4.537%
O 5.522%
O 6.512%
O 7.56%
O 8.52%
O 9.51%
O 10.50%
O 11.50%

Model probability that the starter exceeds each strikeout line.

Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.

Odds & Market Context Closing odds

Market consensus-110 / -108STL / SFG moneyline
Run line context1.5 (-180)Home spread price shown for context
Total context7.5O -118 / U -103
33 books32 ML25 run line24 total