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TOR 10 / SFG 0
TORToronto Blue Jays47%
SFGSan Francisco Giants53%

at Oracle Park

Live MLB Moneyline

Updated
TORAway starterDylan CeaseConfirmed
Model pickSFG moneyline53%Model 20260706_auto
SFGHome starterLogan WebbConfirmed
TOR47%ML -128
Base model probability53%Moneyline only
Market-implied probability46%Selected moneyline pick
SFG53%ML +109

Market-implied probability is estimated from the listed MLB moneyline after removing sportsbook margin. This is market context, not betting advice.

AI Analyst Insight

AI agreementAnalyst disagrees with base model
AI rank#6
Total leanUnder
Model-market gap6.7 pts

Model likes SFG 52.7% vs market's 47.7% for TOR — a 5-point gap favoring the worse team (38-53 vs 43-49). Cease's 2.79 ERA and 13.65 K/9 in 90 IP is elite; Webb at 3.66 ERA is solid but overmatched. Oracle's 0.906 park factor plus quality starters argues under the 7.0 market total. Model's 7.54 total ignores structural suppression.

Projection Context

Projected margin0.1
Projected total8.9
Market total7.0
Total leanOver

Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.

Pitcher Strikeout Forecast

Final / frozen pregame forecast / Updated
Market
Lines
Dylan CeaseTOR starter / away
Projected K7.2Actual 11 K / Over 7.5
Best price at 7.57.5O +128 betonlineag / U -150 bovada5 books at this line
Model over 7.543%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.599%over
O 2.597%over
O 3.591%over
O 4.583%over
O 5.571%over
O 6.557%over
O 7.543%over
O 8.530%over
O 9.520%over
O 10.512%over
O 11.57%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 11 strikeouts.

Logan WebbSFG starter / home
Projected K4.4Actual 2 K / Under 4.5
Best price at 4.54.5O -119 betonlineag / U -104 fanduel7 books at this line
Model over 4.544%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.593%over
O 2.580%under
O 3.563%under
O 4.544%under
O 5.528%under
O 6.516%under
O 7.58%under
O 8.54%under
O 9.52%under
O 10.51%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 2 strikeouts.

Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.

Odds & Market Context

Market consensus-128 / +109TOR / SFG moneyline
Run line context1.5 (-155)Home spread price shown for context
Total context7.0O -110 / U -110
33 books32 ML24 run line23 total