sharps.ggEvery pick graded
Back to board

MLB / mlb / live

NYY 3 / SDP 4
NYYNew York Yankees57%
SDPSan Diego Padres43%

at Petco Park

Live MLB Moneyline

Updated
NYYAway starterGerrit ColeConfirmed
Model pickNYY moneyline57%Model 20260831_auto
SDPHome starterMichael KingConfirmed
NYY57%ML +100
Base model probability57%Moneyline only
SDP43%ML -116

AI Analyst Insight

AI agreementAnalyst agrees with base model
AI rank#1
Total lean · analyst-timeUnder
Model-market gap · analyst-time5.4 pts

Yankees are the better team on both sides: 81-61 with 4.8 RPG and .692 OPS versus San Diego's 3.2 RPG and .547 OPS. Market is near pick'em (+102/-110), so model's 56.8% is a modest but defensible comparison. King (3.11) vs Cole (3.29) in Petco at 0.962 park factor argues under; the model's 8.18 total sits well above the 7.0 line and looks structurally high.

ace matchup

Projection Context

Projected margin1.1
Projected total8.1
Market total7.0
Total leanOver

Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.

Pitcher Strikeout Forecast

Final / frozen pregame forecast / Updated
Market
Lines
Gerrit ColeNYY starter / away
Projected K5.6Actual 3 K / Under 5.5
Best price at 5.55.5O +115 betmgm / U -129 draftkings7 books at this line
Model over 5.548%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.597%over
O 2.590%over
O 3.579%under
O 4.564%under
O 5.548%under
O 6.533%under
O 7.521%under
O 8.512%under
O 9.57%under
O 10.53%under
O 11.52%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 3 strikeouts.

Michael KingSDP starter / home
Projected K5.8Actual 3 K / Under 5.5
Best price at 5.55.5O +100 betmgm / U +105 draftkings6 books at this line
Model over 5.552%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.598%over
O 2.592%over
O 3.582%under
O 4.568%under
O 5.552%under
O 6.537%under
O 7.524%under
O 8.515%under
O 9.58%under
O 10.54%under
O 11.52%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 3 strikeouts.

Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.

Odds & Market Context Closing odds

Market consensus+100 / -116NYY / SDP moneyline
Run line context1.5 (-190)Home spread price shown for context
Total context7.0O -105 / U -115
33 books32 ML25 run line24 total