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LAA 0 / PIT 1
LAALos Angeles Angels40%
PITPittsburgh Pirates60%

at PNC Park

Live MLB Moneyline

Updated
LAAAway starterWalbert UreñaConfirmed
Model pickPIT moneyline60%Model 20260831_auto
PITHome starterPaul SkenesConfirmed
LAA40%ML +150
Base model probability60%Moneyline only
PIT60%ML -176

AI Analyst Insight

AI agreementAnalyst agrees with base model
AI rank#4
Total lean · analyst-timeUnder
Model-market gap · analyst-time3.4 pts

Model (60.4%) sits slightly under market's 63.7% on PIT, so no real comparison, but Skenes at 10.76 K/9 and 1.16 WHIP with home park is a defensible side. Ureña's 2.85 ERA and 1.26 WHIP makes this tighter than the price suggests. Model's 8.08 total is too high given PIT scores just 3.7 RPG against a sub-3.00 ERA starter; taking under 7.5.

Projection Context

Projected margin0.7
Projected total8.1
Market total7.0
Total leanOver

Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.

Pitcher Strikeout Forecast

Final / frozen pregame forecast / Updated
Market
Lines
Walbert UrenaLAA starter / away
Projected K5.2Actual 4 K / Under 4.5
Best price at 4.54.5O -158 fanduel / U +125 fanatics3 books at this line
Model over 4.559%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.596%over
O 2.588%over
O 3.575%over
O 4.559%under
O 5.542%under
O 6.527%under
O 7.517%under
O 8.59%under
O 9.55%under
O 10.52%under
O 11.51%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 4 strikeouts.

Paul SkenesPIT starter / home
Projected K6.0Actual 2 K / Under 6.5
Best price at 6.56.5O +100 fanatics / U +115 betmgm6 books at this line
Model over 6.540%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.598%over
O 2.593%under
O 3.584%under
O 4.570%under
O 5.555%under
O 6.540%under
O 7.526%under
O 8.516%under
O 9.59%under
O 10.55%under
O 11.53%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 2 strikeouts.

Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.

Odds & Market Context Closing odds

Market consensus+150 / -176LAA / PIT moneyline
Run line context-1.5 (+128)Home spread price shown for context
Total context7.0O -115 / U -105
33 books32 ML24 run line24 total