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ATL 2 / PHI 4
ATLAtlanta Braves39%
PHIPhiladelphia Phillies61%

at Citizens Bank Park

Live MLB Moneyline

Updated
ATLAway starterMartín PérezConfirmed
Model pickPHI moneyline61%Model 20260831_auto
PHIHome starterZack WheelerConfirmed
ATL39%ML +138
Base model probability61%Moneyline only
PHI61%ML -165

AI Analyst Insight

AI agreementAnalyst agrees with base model
AI rank#9
Total lean · analyst-timeUnder
Model-market gap · analyst-time1.8 pts

Model (60.9%) and market (59.1%) essentially agree on Philadelphia, so there is no comparison to exploit. Wheeler's 10.63 K/9 and 1.09 WHIP is the best arm in the game, but PHI's listed 3.4 RPG and .570 OPS against Atlanta's 4.4 RPG/.789 OPS and better record is the offense_defense_mismatch red flag. Two sub-3.50 ERA starters argue under 8.5 despite the 1.15 park factor.

offense defense mismatchextreme parkace matchup

Projection Context

Projected margin0.8
Projected total8.1
Market total8.0
Total leanOver

Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.

Pitcher Strikeout Forecast

Final / frozen pregame forecast / Updated
Market
Lines
Martín PérezATL starter / away
Projected K3.6Actual 3 K / Under 3.5
Best price at 3.53.5O +105 draftkings / U -125 betmgm6 books at this line
Model over 3.547%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.586%over
O 2.568%over
O 3.547%under
O 4.529%under
O 5.516%under
O 6.58%under
O 7.53%under
O 8.51%under
O 9.51%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 3 strikeouts.

Zack WheelerPHI starter / home
Projected K6.7Actual 9 K / Over 6.5
Best price at 6.56.5O +105 draftkings / U -118 fanduel5 books at this line
Model over 6.549%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.599%over
O 2.595%over
O 3.589%over
O 4.578%over
O 5.564%over
O 6.549%over
O 7.535%over
O 8.524%over
O 9.515%under
O 10.59%under
O 11.55%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 9 strikeouts.

Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.

Odds & Market Context Closing odds

Market consensus+138 / -165ATL / PHI moneyline
Run line context-1.5 (+130)Home spread price shown for context
Total context8.0O -115 / U -105
33 books32 ML24 run line24 total