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SFG 9 / NYM 5
SFGSan Francisco Giants37%
NYMNew York Mets63%

at Citi Field

Live MLB Moneyline

Updated
SFGAway starterAnthony MolinaConfirmed
Model pickNYM moneyline63%Model 20260831_auto
NYMHome starterZac ThorntonConfirmed
SFG37%ML +142
Base model probability63%Moneyline only
NYM63%ML -171

AI Analyst Insight

AI agreementAnalyst agrees with base model
AI rank#8
Total lean · analyst-timeUnder
Model-market gap · analyst-time0.3 pts

Model at 62.5% and market at 62.9% agree on NYM, so no comparison either way; the side is defensible on Thornton's 2.93 ERA and 1.16 WHIP over 61.1 IP. Molina has only 3 starts and 14.1 IP, so his 3.77 ERA is thin. Model's 9.44 total sits well above the 8.0 line despite a neutral 1.026 park; I lean under.

Projection Context

Projected margin1.0
Projected total9.5
Market total8.0
Total leanOver

Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.

Pitcher Strikeout Forecast

Final / frozen pregame forecast / Updated
Market
Lines
Anthony MolinaSFG starter / away
Projected K3.5Actual 6 K / Over 3.5
Best price at 3.53.5O +112 fanduel / U -121 draftkings5 books at this line
Model over 3.545%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.585%over
O 2.566%over
O 3.545%over
O 4.527%over
O 5.514%over
O 6.57%under
O 7.53%under
O 8.51%under
O 9.50%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 6 strikeouts.

Zac ThorntonNYM starter / home
Projected K4.2Actual 6 K / Over 4.5
Best price at 4.54.5O -140 betmgm / U +121 draftkings6 books at this line
Model over 4.540%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.591%over
O 2.577%over
O 3.559%over
O 4.540%over
O 5.524%over
O 6.513%under
O 7.57%under
O 8.53%under
O 9.51%under
O 10.51%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 6 strikeouts.

Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.

Odds & Market Context Closing odds

Market consensus+142 / -171SFG / NYM moneyline
Run line context-1.5 (+127)Home spread price shown for context
Total context8.0O -109 / U -112
33 books32 ML25 run line24 total