MLB / mlb / live
KCR 3 / NYM 7KCRKansas City Royals44%
NYMNew York Mets56%
at Citi Field
Live MLB Moneyline
UpdatedKCRAway starterMichael WachaConfirmed
Model pickNYM moneyline56%Model 20260706_auto
NYMHome starterSean ManaeaConfirmed
KCR44%ML +120
Base model probability56%Moneyline only
Market-implied probability56%Selected moneyline pick
NYM56%ML -141
Market-implied probability is estimated from the listed MLB moneyline after removing sportsbook margin. This is market context, not betting advice.
Projection Context
Projected margin0.4
Projected total8.9
Market total9.0
Total leanUnder
Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.
Pitcher Strikeout Forecast
Final / frozen pregame forecast / UpdatedMarket
Lines
Michael WachaKCR starter / away
Projected K4.6Actual 5 K / Over 4.5
Best price at 4.54.5O -114 draftkings / U +100 bovada7 books at this line
Model over 4.549%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.594%over
O 2.583%over
O 3.567%over
O 4.549%over
O 5.532%under
O 6.519%under
O 7.510%under
O 8.55%under
O 9.52%under
O 10.51%under
O 11.50%under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 5 strikeouts.
Sean ManaeaNYM starter / home
Projected K5.0Actual 6 K / Over 4.5
Best price at 4.54.5O -155 betmgm / U +130 bovada5 books at this line
Model over 4.555%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.595%over
O 2.586%over
O 3.572%over
O 4.555%over
O 5.538%over
O 6.524%under
O 7.514%under
O 8.57%under
O 9.54%under
O 10.52%under
O 11.51%under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 6 strikeouts.
Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.
Odds & Market Context
Market consensus+120 / -141KCR / NYM moneyline
Run line context-1.5 (+142)Home spread price shown for context
Total context9.0O -120 / U -102
33 books32 ML24 run line23 total