MLB / mlb / live
CLE 1 / MIN 3CLECleveland Guardians47%
MINMinnesota Twins53%
at Target Field
Live MLB Moneyline
UpdatedCLEAway starterJoey CantilloConfirmed
Model pickMIN moneyline53%Model 20260706_auto
MINHome starterTaj BradleyConfirmed
CLE47%ML -110
Base model probability53%Moneyline only
Market-implied probability50%Selected moneyline pick
MIN53%ML -110
Market-implied probability is estimated from the listed MLB moneyline after removing sportsbook margin. This is market context, not betting advice.
Projection Context
Projected margin0.2
Projected total9.1
Market total8.5
Total leanOver
Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.
Pitcher Strikeout Forecast
Final / frozen pregame forecast / UpdatedMarket
Lines
Joey CantilloCLE starter / away
Projected K5.2Actual 7 K / Over 4.5
Best price at 4.54.5O -155 betmgm / U +132 fanduel5 books at this line
Model over 4.559%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.596%over
O 2.588%over
O 3.575%over
O 4.559%over
O 5.542%over
O 6.528%over
O 7.517%under
O 8.59%under
O 9.55%under
O 10.52%under
O 11.51%under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 7 strikeouts.
Taj BradleyMIN starter / home
Projected K6.0Actual 10 K / Over 6.5
Best price at 6.56.5O +120 bovada / U -137 draftkings5 books at this line
Model over 6.539%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.598%over
O 2.593%over
O 3.583%over
O 4.570%over
O 5.554%over
O 6.539%over
O 7.526%over
O 8.516%over
O 9.59%over
O 10.55%under
O 11.52%under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 10 strikeouts.
Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.
Odds & Market Context
Market consensus-110 / -110CLE / MIN moneyline
Run line context1.0 (-148)Home spread price shown for context
Total context8.5O -112 / U -108
33 books32 ML23 run line23 total