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CHC 3 / MIL 4
CHCChicago Cubs42%
MILMilwaukee Brewers58%

at American Family Field

Live MLB Moneyline

Updated
CHCAway starterDavid PetersonConfirmed
Model pickMIL moneyline58%Model 20260907_auto
MILHome starterJacob MisiorowskiConfirmed
CHC42%ML +172
Base model probability58%Moneyline only
MIL58%ML -210

AI Analyst Insight

AI agreementAnalyst agrees with base model
AI rank#3
Total lean · analyst-timeUnder
Model-market gap · analyst-time8.2 pts

Market at 65.8% looks better calibrated than the model's 57.6% given the starter gap: Misiorowski at 1.97 ERA, 0.79 WHIP, 13.18 K/9 against Peterson's 5.39 ERA and 1.56 WHIP. The model's 9.15-run total is 1.65 above the 7.5 line and hard to justify in a 0.95 park behind that arm; under is the cleaner side.

Large model-market gaptotal far from market

Projection Context

Projected margin0.7
Projected total9.0
Market total7.0
Total leanOver

Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.

Pitcher Strikeout Forecast

Final / frozen pregame forecast / Updated
Market
Lines
David PetersonCHC starter / away
Projected K4.6
Best price at 4.54.5O +125 betonlineag / U -140 betmgm6 books at this line
Model over 4.548%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.594%
O 2.583%
O 3.566%
O 4.548%
O 5.532%
O 6.519%
O 7.510%
O 8.55%
O 9.52%
O 10.51%
O 11.50%

Model probability that the starter exceeds each strikeout line.

Jacob MisiorowskiMIL starter / home
Projected K8.2
Best price at 8.58.5O +128 betonlineag / U -146 fanduel4 books at this line
Model over 8.543%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.5100%
O 2.598%
O 3.595%
O 4.590%
O 5.581%
O 6.569%
O 7.556%
O 8.543%
O 9.531%
O 10.522%
O 11.514%

Model probability that the starter exceeds each strikeout line.

Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.

Odds & Market Context Closing odds

Market consensus+172 / -210CHC / MIL moneyline
Run line context-1.5 (+105)Home spread price shown for context
Total context7.0O -120 / U -107
33 books32 ML25 run line24 total