sharps.ggEvery pick graded
Back to board

MLB / mlb / live

CHC 3 / MIL 4
CHCChicago Cubs52%
MILMilwaukee Brewers48%

at American Family Field

Live MLB Moneyline

Updated
CHCAway starterMatthew BoydConfirmed
Model pickCHC moneyline52%Model 20260907_auto
MILHome starterRobert GasserConfirmed
CHC52%ML +105
Base model probability52%Moneyline only
MIL48%ML -124

AI Analyst Insight

AI agreementAnalyst disagrees with base model
AI rank#2
Total lean · analyst-timeUnder
Model-market gap · analyst-time5.1 pts

Model leans CHC at 51.6% while the market implies 53.5% home; I side with Milwaukee on the better record (88-56 vs 81-63) and home field. The team offense inputs look internally inconsistent (CHC 7.3 RPG on a .694 OPS), so I discount the model's offense-driven SHAP features. Model total of 9.67 sits well above the 8.5 line in a 0.95 park with two mid-4.00 ERA starters — lean under.

Projection Context

Projected margin0.3
Projected total9.5
Market total8.5
Total leanOver

Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.

Pitcher Strikeout Forecast

Final / frozen pregame forecast / Updated
Market
Lines
Matthew BoydCHC starter / away
Projected K4.3Actual 7 K / Over 4.5
Best price at 4.54.5O +133 draftkings / U -146 fanduel4 books at this line
Model over 4.542%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.592%over
O 2.579%over
O 3.561%over
O 4.542%over
O 5.526%over
O 6.515%over
O 7.58%under
O 8.54%under
O 9.52%under
O 10.51%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 7 strikeouts.

Robert GasserMIL starter / home
Projected K4.6Actual 5 K / Over 4.5
Best price at 4.54.5O +131 draftkings / U -143 betonlineag5 books at this line
Model over 4.548%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.594%over
O 2.583%over
O 3.566%over
O 4.548%over
O 5.532%under
O 6.519%under
O 7.510%under
O 8.55%under
O 9.52%under
O 10.51%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 5 strikeouts.

Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.

Odds & Market Context Closing odds

Market consensus+105 / -124CHC / MIL moneyline
Run line context-1.5 (+164)Home spread price shown for context
Total context8.5O -108 / U -112
33 books32 ML24 run line23 total