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WSN 5 / LAD 7
WSNWashington Nationals37%
LADLos Angeles Dodgers63%

at UNIQLO Field at Dodger Stadium

Live MLB Moneyline

Updated
WSNAway starterAndrew AlvarezProbable
Model pickLAD moneyline63%Model 20260831_auto
LADHome starterJustin WrobleskiProbable
WSN37%ML +166
Base model probability63%Moneyline only
LAD63%ML -200

AI Analyst Insight

AI agreementAnalyst agrees with base model
AI rank#5
Total lean · analyst-timeUnder
Model-market gap · analyst-time2.7 pts

Model (62.5%) and market (65.2%) essentially agree on LAD, so no comparison to exploit but the side is defensible. Both starters are solid — Wrobleski 3.65 ERA/1.11 WHIP, Alvarez 3.47 ERA — and LAD's own offense is modest at 4.2 RPG. The model's 9.06-run total sits a full run over the market's 8.0 without clear justification; I lean under.

Projection Context

Projected margin1.1
Projected total9.0
Market total8.5
Total leanOver

Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.

Pitcher Strikeout Forecast

Final / frozen pregame forecast / Updated
Market
Lines
Andrew AlvarezWSN starter / away
Projected K3.8Actual 5 K / Over 3.5
Best price at 3.53.5O -105 betmgm / U -103 betonlineag6 books at this line
Model over 3.553%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.589%over
O 2.573%over
O 3.553%over
O 4.534%over
O 5.519%under
O 6.510%under
O 7.55%under
O 8.52%under
O 9.51%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 5 strikeouts.

Justin WrobleskiLAD starter / home
Projected K4.7Actual 6 K / Over 4.5
Best price at 4.54.5O +120 betonlineag / U -125 betmgm6 books at this line
Model over 4.550%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.594%over
O 2.584%over
O 3.568%over
O 4.550%over
O 5.533%over
O 6.520%under
O 7.511%under
O 8.56%under
O 9.53%under
O 10.51%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 6 strikeouts.

Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.

Odds & Market Context Closing odds

Market consensus+166 / -200WSN / LAD moneyline
Run line context-1.5 (+108)Home spread price shown for context
Total context8.5O -105 / U -115
32 books31 ML24 run line23 total