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WSN 3 / LAD 5
WSNWashington Nationals35%
LADLos Angeles Dodgers65%

at UNIQLO Field at Dodger Stadium

Live MLB Moneyline

Updated
WSNAway starterJackson KentConfirmed
Model pickLAD moneyline65%Model 20260831_auto
LADHome starterBlake SnellConfirmed
WSN35%ML +225
Base model probability65%Moneyline only
LAD65%ML -275

AI Analyst Insight

AI agreementAnalyst agrees with base model
AI rank#1
Total lean · analyst-timeUnder
Model-market gap · analyst-time8.7 pts

Snell (2.42 ERA, 12.46 K/9, 1.08 WHIP) against Kent (5.59 ERA, 1.71 WHIP in 4 starts) is a clear starter comparison, and the market's 73.7% implied is more defensible than the model's 64.9%. LAD's 3.8 RPG caps the blowout upside, so no strong price value, but the side is right. Snell plus a soft Dodgers offense leans the total under 8.5.

Large model-market gap

Projection Context

Projected margin1.2
Projected total8.6
Market total8.0
Total leanOver

Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.

Pitcher Strikeout Forecast

Final / frozen pregame forecast / Updated
Market
Lines
Jackson KentWSN starter / away
Projected K3.9Actual 4 K / Over 3.5
Best price at 3.53.5O -111 draftkings / U -113 fanduel6 books at this line
Model over 3.554%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.589%over
O 2.573%over
O 3.554%over
O 4.535%under
O 5.520%under
O 6.511%under
O 7.55%under
O 8.52%under
O 9.51%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 4 strikeouts.

Blake SnellLAD starter / home
Projected K7.3Actual 7 K / Under 7.5
Best price at 7.57.5O -125 fanatics / U +136 fanduel5 books at this line
Model over 7.544%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.599%over
O 2.597%over
O 3.592%over
O 4.583%over
O 5.572%over
O 6.558%over
O 7.544%under
O 8.531%under
O 9.521%under
O 10.513%under
O 11.58%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 7 strikeouts.

Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.

Odds & Market Context Closing odds

Market consensus+225 / -275WSN / LAD moneyline
Run line context-1.5 (-124)Home spread price shown for context
Total context8.0O -110 / U -110
32 books31 ML24 run line23 total