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STL 2 / LAD 3
STLSt. Louis Cardinals33%
LADLos Angeles Dodgers67%

at UNIQLO Field at Dodger Stadium

Live MLB Moneyline

Updated
STLAway starterQuinn MathewsConfirmed
Model pickLAD moneyline67%Model 20260831_auto
LADHome starterTarik SkubalConfirmed
STL33%ML +235
Base model probability67%Moneyline only
LAD67%ML -294

AI Analyst Insight

AI agreementAnalyst agrees with base model
AI rankUnranked
Total lean · analyst-timeUnder
Model-market gap · analyst-time5.8 pts

Skubal (2.84 ERA, 0.94 WHIP, 10.87 K/9 over 126.7 IP) is a substantial comparison over Mathews (5.03 ERA, 1.58 WHIP in only 19.7 IP). Market at 72.4% is more confident than the model's 66.6%, and I side with the market here. Model's 8.73 total sits well above the 8.0 line despite LAD scoring just 3.9 RPG and facing an ace-caliber home starter; lean under.

Projection Context

Projected margin1.5
Projected total8.7
Market total7.5
Total leanOver

Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.

Pitcher Strikeout Forecast

Final / frozen pregame forecast / Updated
Market
Lines
Quinn MathewsSTL starter / away
Projected K4.7Actual 4 K / Under 4.5
Best price at 4.54.5O +102 fanduel / U -118 betmgm6 books at this line
Model over 4.551%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.594%over
O 2.584%over
O 3.569%over
O 4.551%under
O 5.534%under
O 6.521%under
O 7.512%under
O 8.56%under
O 9.53%under
O 10.51%under
O 11.51%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 4 strikeouts.

Tarik SkubalLAD starter / home
Projected K7.1Actual 6 K / Under 8.5
Best price at 8.58.5O +136 fanduel / U -169 betonlineag3 books at this line
Model over 8.530%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.599%over
O 2.597%over
O 3.591%over
O 4.582%over
O 5.570%over
O 6.556%under
O 7.542%under
O 8.530%under
O 9.520%under
O 10.512%under
O 11.57%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 6 strikeouts.

Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.

Odds & Market Context Closing odds

Market consensus+235 / -294STL / LAD moneyline
Run line context-1.5 (-130)Home spread price shown for context
Total context7.5O -102 / U -118
32 books31 ML24 run line23 total