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ARI 9 / LAD 3
ARIArizona Diamondbacks40%
LADLos Angeles Dodgers60%

at UNIQLO Field at Dodger Stadium

Live MLB Moneyline

Updated
ARIAway starterEduardo RodriguezConfirmed
Model pickLAD moneyline60%Model 20260706_auto
LADHome starterKyle HurtConfirmed
ARI40%ML +176
Base model probability60%Moneyline only
Market-implied probability65%Selected moneyline pick
LAD60%ML -213

Market-implied probability is estimated from the listed MLB moneyline after removing sportsbook margin. This is market context, not betting advice.

AI Analyst Insight

AI agreementAnalyst agrees with base model
AI rank#4
Total leanUnder
Model-market gap4.8 pts

Market has LAD at 69.5% implied, model at 60.7% — 8.8 pp gap flags large disagreement. Ohtani (1.79 ERA, 9.98 K/9 over 85.7 IP) and Rodriguez (2.25 ERA over 108 IP) form a legitimate ace matchup. Model total 8.74 sits above market 8.5; ace matchup argues under. Agree with LAD side at reduced confidence given market knows more, lean under on total.

Large model-market gapace matchup

Projection Context

Projected margin0.9
Projected total8.9
Market total9.0
Total leanUnder

Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.

Pitcher Strikeout Forecast

Final / frozen pregame forecast / Updated
Market
Lines
Eduardo RodriguezARI starter / away
Projected K4.2Actual 5 K / Over 3.5
Best price at 3.53.5O -149 betonlineag / U +124 draftkings4 books at this line
Model over 3.559%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.591%over
O 2.577%over
O 3.559%over
O 4.540%over
O 5.524%under
O 6.513%under
O 7.57%under
O 8.53%under
O 9.51%under
O 10.51%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 5 strikeouts.

Kyle HurtLAD starter / home
Projected K1.9Actual 1 K
Market lineN/ANo two-sided pregame line
Model over lineN/A
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.557%under
O 2.531%under
O 3.514%under
O 4.55%under
O 5.52%under
O 6.50%under
O 7.50%under
O 8.50%under
O 9.50%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 1 strikeouts.

Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.

Odds & Market Context

Market consensus+176 / -213ARI / LAD moneyline
Run line context-1.5 (-105)Home spread price shown for context
Total context9.0O -114 / U -110
33 books32 ML24 run line23 total