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COL 3 / LAD 4
COLColorado Rockies34%
LADLos Angeles Dodgers66%

at UNIQLO Field at Dodger Stadium

Live MLB Moneyline

Updated
COLAway starterGabriel HughesConfirmed
Model pickLAD moneyline66%Model 20260706_auto
LADHome starterRoki SasakiConfirmed
COL34%ML +218
Base model probability66%Moneyline only
Market-implied probability70%Selected moneyline pick
LAD66%ML -264

Market-implied probability is estimated from the listed MLB moneyline after removing sportsbook margin. This is market context, not betting advice.

AI Analyst Insight

AI agreementAnalyst agrees with base model
AI rank#1
Total leanUnder
Model-market gap3.3 pts

LAD (60-33) hosting COL (38-55) with market at 68% vs model 66.5%. Hughes has 3.0 IP total this season—that's not a starter profile, expect bulk reliever or opener. Sasaki's 5.40 ERA in 75 IP is mediocre but solid K/9. Model total 8.81 vs market 10.0 is a 1.2-run gap favoring under; model likely right given pitching uncertainty favors variance compression.

Projection Context

Projected margin1.5
Projected total8.8
Market total10.0
Total leanUnder

Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.

Pitcher Strikeout Forecast

Final / frozen pregame forecast / Updated
Market
Lines
Gabriel HughesCOL starter / awayThin data
Projected K3.1Actual 7 K
Market lineN/ANo two-sided pregame line
Model over lineN/A
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.581%over
O 2.560%over
O 3.538%over
O 4.521%over
O 5.510%over
O 6.54%over
O 7.52%under
O 8.51%under
O 9.50%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 7 strikeouts.

Roki SasakiLAD starter / home
Projected K5.6Actual 5 K / Under 5.5
Best price at 5.55.5O -115 betmgm / U -102 draftkings7 books at this line
Model over 5.548%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.597%over
O 2.591%over
O 3.580%over
O 4.565%over
O 5.548%under
O 6.533%under
O 7.521%under
O 8.512%under
O 9.57%under
O 10.54%under
O 11.52%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 5 strikeouts.

Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.

Odds & Market Context

Market consensus+218 / -264COL / LAD moneyline
Run line context-1.5 (-133)Home spread price shown for context
Total context10.0O -110 / U -112
32 books31 ML23 run line22 total