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COL 4 / LAD 3
COLColorado Rockies34%
LADLos Angeles Dodgers66%

at UNIQLO Field at Dodger Stadium

Live MLB Moneyline

Updated
COLAway starterMichael LorenzenConfirmed
Model pickLAD moneyline66%Model 20260706_auto
LADHome starterJustin WrobleskiConfirmed
COL34%ML +252
Base model probability66%Moneyline only
Market-implied probability73%Selected moneyline pick
LAD66%ML -320

Market-implied probability is estimated from the listed MLB moneyline after removing sportsbook margin. This is market context, not betting advice.

AI Analyst Insight

AI agreementAnalyst agrees with base model
AI rank#1
Total leanOver
Model-market gap6.3 pts

Market at 70.7% implied vs model 66.5% on LAD suggests market sees bigger comparison. Wrobleski's 2.80 ERA over 93 IP is legitimate; Lorenzen's 6.91 ERA and 1.81 WHIP are exploitable. COL's 7.3 RPG inflates in Coors home splits. Market total 9.5 vs model 9.96 is tight; lean over given COL bullpen exposure.

Projection Context

Projected margin1.6
Projected total8.6
Market total9.5
Total leanUnder

Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.

Pitcher Strikeout Forecast

Final / frozen pregame forecast / Updated
Market
Lines
Michael LorenzenCOL starter / away
Projected K4.0Actual 5 K / Over 3.5
Best price at 3.53.5O -128 draftkings / U +110 fanatics6 books at this line
Model over 3.556%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.590%over
O 2.575%over
O 3.556%over
O 4.537%over
O 5.522%under
O 6.512%under
O 7.56%under
O 8.52%under
O 9.51%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 5 strikeouts.

Justin WrobleskiLAD starter / home
Projected K4.8Actual 9 K / Over 5.5
Best price at 5.55.5O +122 fanduel / U -152 betrivers4 books at this line
Model over 5.536%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.595%over
O 2.585%over
O 3.570%over
O 4.552%over
O 5.536%over
O 6.522%over
O 7.512%over
O 8.57%over
O 9.53%under
O 10.51%under
O 11.51%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 9 strikeouts.

Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.

Odds & Market Context

Market consensus+252 / -320COL / LAD moneyline
Run line context-1.5 (-146)Home spread price shown for context
Total context9.5O -106 / U -114
32 books31 ML23 run line22 total