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COL 7 / LAD 8
COLColorado Rockies52%
LADLos Angeles Dodgers48%

at UNIQLO Field at Dodger Stadium

Live MLB Moneyline

Updated
COLAway starterKyle FreelandConfirmed
Model pickCOL moneyline52%Model 20260706_auto
LADHome starterEric LauerConfirmed
COL52%ML +203
Base model probability52%Moneyline only
Market-implied probability32%Selected moneyline pick
LAD48%ML -250

Market-implied probability is estimated from the listed MLB moneyline after removing sportsbook margin. This is market context, not betting advice.

AI Analyst Insight

AI agreementAnalyst disagrees with base model
AI rank#1
Total leanUnder
Model-market gap20.3 pts

Model has COL at 51.9% but market prices LAD at 66.9% — a 15-point gap. Freeland's 7.25 ERA in 77 IP is terrible; COL's .531 OPS is worst-in-sample material. LAD 59-31 vs COL 36-54 isn't close. Model overweighting some noisy short-window features; market is right. Total: model 9.76 vs market 10.5 — lean under given Dodger Stadium context.

Large model-market gap

Projection Context

Projected margin0.5
Projected total9.5
Market total10.0
Total leanUnder

Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.

Pitcher Strikeout Forecast

Final / frozen pregame forecast / Updated
Market
Lines
Kyle FreelandCOL starter / away
Projected K4.2Actual 2 K / Under 4.5
Best price at 4.54.5O +120 bovada / U -150 fanatics5 books at this line
Model over 4.541%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.591%over
O 2.578%under
O 3.559%under
O 4.541%under
O 5.525%under
O 6.514%under
O 7.57%under
O 8.53%under
O 9.51%under
O 10.51%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 2 strikeouts.

Eric LauerLAD starter / home
Projected K3.7Actual 3 K / Under 4.5
Best price at 4.54.5O +120 betonlineag / U -126 draftkings6 books at this line
Model over 4.532%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.588%over
O 2.571%over
O 3.551%under
O 4.532%under
O 5.518%under
O 6.59%under
O 7.54%under
O 8.52%under
O 9.51%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 3 strikeouts.

Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.

Odds & Market Context

Market consensus+203 / -250COL / LAD moneyline
Run line context-1.5 (-120)Home spread price shown for context
Total context10.0O -106 / U -114
32 books31 ML23 run line22 total