MLB / mlb / live
ARI 5 / KCR 4ARIArizona Diamondbacks44%
KCRKansas City Royals56%
at Kauffman Stadium
Live MLB Moneyline
UpdatedARIAway starterDerek LawConfirmed
Model pickKCR moneyline56%Model 20260907_auto
KCRHome starterNoah CameronConfirmed
ARI44%ML -105
Base model probability56%Moneyline only
KCR56%ML -113
Projection Context
Projected margin0.4
Projected total9.7
Market total9.0
Total leanOver
Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.
Pitcher Strikeout Forecast
Final / frozen pregame forecast / UpdatedMarket
Lines
Derek LawARI starter / away
Projected K1.6Actual 0 K
Market line ยท pregameN/ANo two-sided pregame line
Model over lineN/A
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.549%under
O 2.523%under
O 3.59%under
O 4.53%under
O 5.51%under
O 6.50%under
O 7.50%under
O 8.50%under
O 9.50%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 0 strikeouts.
Noah CameronKCR starter / home
Projected K4.7Actual 7 K / Over 3.5
Best price at 3.53.5O -135 betonlineag / U +115 fanatics6 books at this line
Model over 3.567%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.594%over
O 2.583%over
O 3.567%over
O 4.549%over
O 5.533%over
O 6.520%over
O 7.511%under
O 8.55%under
O 9.53%under
O 10.51%under
O 11.50%under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 7 strikeouts.
Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.
Odds & Market Context Closing odds
Market consensus-105 / -113ARI / KCR moneyline
Run line context1.0 (-154)Home spread price shown for context
Total context9.0O -116 / U -108
32 books31 ML24 run line23 total