sharps.ggEvery pick graded
Back to board

MLB / mlb / live

ARI 5 / KCR 3
ARIArizona Diamondbacks50%
KCRKansas City Royals50%

at Kauffman Stadium

Live MLB Moneyline

Updated
ARIAway starterCorbin BurnesConfirmed
Model pickKCR moneyline50%Model 20260907_auto
KCRHome starterMichael WachaConfirmed
ARI50%ML -106
Base model probability50%Moneyline only
KCR50%ML -112

AI Analyst Insight

AI agreementAnalyst agrees with base model
AI rank#9
Total lean · analyst-timeNo total lean
Model-market gap · analyst-time2.0 pts

Essentially a coin flip: model has KCR at 50.1%, market implies 48.1%. Wacha's 3.36 ERA and 1.10 WHIP over 176.7 IP is solid, resolved data, while the Burnes line is a fallback, so the ARI run-prevention side is unknown. That uncertainty plus Kauffman's 1.09 park factor makes the 9.5 total unplayable for me; slight nod to KCR at plus money only.

pitcher data fallback

Projection Context

Projected margin0.2
Projected total9.2
Market total9.0
Total leanOver

Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.

Pitcher Strikeout Forecast

Final / frozen pregame forecast / Updated
Market
Lines
Corbin BurnesARI starter / away
Projected K3.9
Best price at 2.52.5O -156 betonlineag / U +140 draftkings5 books at this line
Model over 2.574%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.589%
O 2.574%
O 3.554%
O 4.535%
O 5.520%
O 6.511%
O 7.55%
O 8.52%
O 9.51%
O 10.50%
O 11.50%

Model probability that the starter exceeds each strikeout line.

Michael WachaKCR starter / home
Projected K4.5
Best price at 4.54.5O +139 betonlineag / U -155 betmgm5 books at this line
Model over 4.547%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.593%
O 2.582%
O 3.565%
O 4.547%
O 5.530%
O 6.518%
O 7.510%
O 8.55%
O 9.52%
O 10.51%
O 11.50%

Model probability that the starter exceeds each strikeout line.

Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.

Odds & Market Context Closing odds

Market consensus-106 / -112ARI / KCR moneyline
Run line context1.5 (-177)Home spread price shown for context
Total context9.0O -110 / U -110
33 books32 ML25 run line24 total