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PHI 1 / KCR 15
PHIPhiladelphia Phillies57%
KCRKansas City Royals43%

at Kauffman Stadium

Live MLB Moneyline

Updated
PHIAway starterCristopher SánchezConfirmed
Model pickPHI moneyline57%Model 20260706_auto
KCRHome starterNoah CameronConfirmed
PHI57%ML -220
Base model probability57%Moneyline only
Market-implied probability66%Selected moneyline pick
KCR43%ML +180

Market-implied probability is estimated from the listed MLB moneyline after removing sportsbook margin. This is market context, not betting advice.

AI Analyst Insight

AI agreementAnalyst agrees with base model
AI rank#2
Total leanOver
Model-market gap8.7 pts

Market has PHI at 68% implied, model at 57%. The gap favors market's view: Sánchez (2.00 ERA, 10.46 K/9 in 117 IP) is a legit ace; Cameron (4.95 ERA, 1.41 WHIP) is hittable. PHI scores 5.6 RPG vs KCR's 3.1. Kauffman runs slightly hot (PF 1.09). Model underweights PHI's offensive comparison and Sánchez's dominance. Over 8.0 also reasonable given park and PHI bats.

Large model-market gap

Projection Context

Projected margin0.9
Projected total9.5
Market total8.5
Total leanOver

Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.

Pitcher Strikeout Forecast

Final / frozen pregame forecast / Updated
Market
Lines
Cristopher SánchezPHI starter / away
Projected K6.3Actual 1 K / Under 6.5
Best price at 6.56.5O -114 betonlineag / U -101 draftkings7 books at this line
Model over 6.544%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.598%under
O 2.594%under
O 3.586%under
O 4.574%under
O 5.559%under
O 6.544%under
O 7.530%under
O 8.519%under
O 9.512%under
O 10.57%under
O 11.53%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 1 strikeouts.

Noah CameronKCR starter / home
Projected K5.0Actual 7 K / Over 4.5
Best price at 4.54.5O -148 betrivers / U +126 fanduel7 books at this line
Model over 4.555%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.595%over
O 2.586%over
O 3.572%over
O 4.555%over
O 5.538%over
O 6.524%over
O 7.514%under
O 8.58%under
O 9.54%under
O 10.52%under
O 11.51%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 7 strikeouts.

Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.

Odds & Market Context

Market consensus-220 / +180PHI / KCR moneyline
Run line context1.5 (+115)Home spread price shown for context
Total context8.5O -110 / U -110
33 books32 ML24 run line23 total