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DET 2 / CLE 3
DETDetroit Tigers37%
CLECleveland Guardians63%

at Progressive Field

Live MLB Moneyline

Updated
DETAway starterJackson JobeConfirmed
Model pickCLE moneyline63%Model 20260831_auto
CLEHome starterGavin WilliamsConfirmed
DET37%ML +143
Base model probability63%Moneyline only
CLE63%ML -170

AI Analyst Insight

AI agreementAnalyst agrees with base model
AI rank#2
Total lean · analyst-timeUnder
Model-market gap · analyst-time2.0 pts

Model 62.5% and market 60.5% on CLE are effectively aligned; Williams' 11.98 K/9 and 1.09 WHIP over 163 IP outclasses Jobe (4.63 ERA, 1.46 WHIP, 23.3 IP). The total is where I part ways: two of the weakest offenses in the sport (3.8 and 3.3 RPG, .600 and .582 OPS) in a slightly suppressive park do not support the model's 8.05 against a 7.0 line.

Projection Context

Projected margin1.0
Projected total8.1
Market total7.0
Total leanOver

Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.

Pitcher Strikeout Forecast

Final / frozen pregame forecast / Updated
Market
Lines
Jackson JobeDET starter / away
Projected K3.9Actual 7 K / Over 3.5
Best price at 3.53.5O +105 betmgm / U +108 betonlineag6 books at this line
Model over 3.555%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.590%over
O 2.574%over
O 3.555%over
O 4.536%over
O 5.521%over
O 6.511%over
O 7.55%under
O 8.52%under
O 9.51%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 7 strikeouts.

Gavin WilliamsCLE starter / home
Projected K9.0Actual 11 K / Over 7.5
Best price at 7.57.5O -135 betmgm / U +124 fanduel4 books at this line
Model over 7.566%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.5100%over
O 2.599%over
O 3.597%over
O 4.593%over
O 5.587%over
O 6.578%over
O 7.566%over
O 8.554%over
O 9.542%over
O 10.531%over
O 11.521%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 11 strikeouts.

Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.

Odds & Market Context Closing odds

Market consensus+143 / -170DET / CLE moneyline
Run line context-1.5 (+133)Home spread price shown for context
Total context7.0O -102 / U -118
33 books32 ML25 run line24 total