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DET 3 / CLE 4
DETDetroit Tigers50%
CLECleveland Guardians50%

at Progressive Field

Live MLB Moneyline

Updated
DETAway starterAndrew SearsConfirmed
Model pickDET moneyline50%Model 20260831_auto
CLEHome starterFoster GriffinConfirmed
DET50%ML +123
Base model probability50%Moneyline only
CLE50%ML -148

AI Analyst Insight

AI agreementAnalyst disagrees with base model
AI rank#9
Total lean · analyst-timeUnder
Model-market gap · analyst-time6.7 pts

Model takes DET at 50.5% despite the Tigers' 64-75 record, 3.0 RPG and .582 OPS — the mismatch flag is doing real work here. Griffin (3.21 ERA, 1.12 WHIP over 154.1 IP) is the far more established arm; Sears has just 6.2 IP of data. Model's 8.66 total sits well above the 8.0 line with a weak DET bat and a 0.98 park, so under.

offense defense mismatch

Projection Context

Projected margin0.3
Projected total8.5
Market total7.5
Total leanOver

Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.

Pitcher Strikeout Forecast

Final / frozen pregame forecast / Updated
Market
Lines
Andrew SearsDET starter / awayThin data
Projected K3.2Actual 4 K
Market line · pregameN/ANo two-sided pregame line
Model over lineN/A
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.583%over
O 2.562%over
O 3.540%over
O 4.523%under
O 5.512%under
O 6.55%under
O 7.52%under
O 8.51%under
O 9.50%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 4 strikeouts.

Foster GriffinCLE starter / home
Projected K4.7Actual 3 K / Under 5.5
Best price at 5.55.5O +100 bovada / U -123 draftkings5 books at this line
Model over 5.533%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.594%over
O 2.584%over
O 3.568%under
O 4.550%under
O 5.533%under
O 6.520%under
O 7.511%under
O 8.56%under
O 9.53%under
O 10.51%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 3 strikeouts.

Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.

Odds & Market Context Closing odds

Market consensus+123 / -148DET / CLE moneyline
Run line context-1.5 (+143)Home spread price shown for context
Total context7.5O -120 / U +100
32 books31 ML24 run line23 total