sharps.ggEvery pick graded
Back to board

MLB / mlb / live

DET 6 / CLE 7
DETDetroit Tigers50%
CLECleveland Guardians50%

at Progressive Field

Live MLB Moneyline

Updated
DETAway starterKeider MonteroConfirmed
Model pickDET moneyline50%Model 20260831_auto
CLEHome starterLogan AllenConfirmed
DET50%ML +108
Base model probability50%Moneyline only
CLE50%ML -129

AI Analyst Insight

AI agreementAnalyst disagrees with base model
AI rank#10
Total lean · analyst-timeUnder
Model-market gap · analyst-time6.1 pts

Model takes DET despite a 64-75 record, 3.0 RPG and .582 OPS against a Cleveland club at 4.6 RPG; that is the mismatch flag firing. Williams' 11.98 K/9 and 1.09 WHIP at home outweighs Mize's contact profile. Market's 55.6% on CLE looks right. Detroit's offense plus two sub-3.85 ERA starters in a neutral park argues under 8.0.

offense defense mismatch

Projection Context

Projected margin0.4
Projected total8.3
Market total8.0
Total leanOver

Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.

Pitcher Strikeout Forecast

Final / frozen pregame forecast / Updated
Market
Lines
Casey MizeDET starter / away
Projected K2.5Did not start / void
Best price at 3.53.5O -165 draftkings / U +140 bovada4 books at this line
Model over 3.524%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.570%
O 2.545%
O 3.524%
O 4.511%
O 5.54%
O 6.52%
O 7.51%
O 8.50%
O 9.50%
O 10.50%
O 11.50%

Model probability that the starter exceeds each strikeout line.

Gavin WilliamsCLE starter / home
Projected K6.2Did not start / void
Best price at 6.56.5O -132 betrivers / U +116 fanduel5 books at this line
Model over 6.542%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.598%
O 2.594%
O 3.585%
O 4.573%
O 5.558%
O 6.542%
O 7.529%
O 8.518%
O 9.511%
O 10.56%
O 11.53%

Model probability that the starter exceeds each strikeout line.

Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.

Odds & Market Context Closing odds

Market consensus+108 / -129DET / CLE moneyline
Run line context-1.5 (+160)Home spread price shown for context
Total context8.0O -118 / U -108
33 books32 ML25 run line24 total