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MIL 10 / CIN 7
MILMilwaukee Brewers50%
CINCincinnati Reds50%

at Great American Ball Park

Live MLB Moneyline

Updated
MILAway starterShane DrohanConfirmed
Model pickCIN moneyline50%Model 20260831_auto
CINHome starterRhett LowderConfirmed
MIL50%ML -157
Base model probability50%Moneyline only
CIN50%ML +130

AI Analyst Insight

AI agreementAnalyst disagrees with base model
AI rank#2
Total lean · analyst-timeNo total lean
Model-market gap · analyst-time9.2 pts

Model has CIN at 50.2% versus market's 41%, but every underlying input favors Milwaukee: 87-54 record, 5.5 RPG and .972 OPS against Cincinnati's .629, plus Drohan (3.75 ERA, 8.97 K/9, 1.30 WHIP) over Lowder (5.14 ERA, 1.46 WHIP). Taking the market side. Total 9.97 vs 9.5 line is close enough with a neutral park (0.997) to pass.

Large model-market gapoffense defense mismatch

Projection Context

Projected margin0.1
Projected total10.2
Market total9.5
Total leanOver

Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.

Pitcher Strikeout Forecast

Final / frozen pregame forecast / Updated
Market
Lines
Shane DrohanMIL starter / away
Projected K5.6Actual 5 K / Under 5.5
Best price at 5.55.5O +112 fanduel / U -115 betmgm5 books at this line
Model over 5.548%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.597%over
O 2.591%over
O 3.579%over
O 4.564%over
O 5.548%under
O 6.533%under
O 7.521%under
O 8.512%under
O 9.57%under
O 10.53%under
O 11.52%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 5 strikeouts.

Rhett LowderCIN starter / home
Projected K4.2Actual 2 K / Under 3.5
Best price at 3.53.5O -145 fanatics / U +120 bovada6 books at this line
Model over 3.560%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.592%over
O 2.578%under
O 3.560%under
O 4.541%under
O 5.526%under
O 6.514%under
O 7.57%under
O 8.53%under
O 9.51%under
O 10.51%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 2 strikeouts.

Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.

Odds & Market Context Closing odds

Market consensus-157 / +130MIL / CIN moneyline
Run line context1.5 (-120)Home spread price shown for context
Total context9.5O -110 / U -110
33 books31 ML25 run line23 total