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MIN 1 / CHW 10
MINMinnesota Twins35%
CHWChicago White Sox65%

at Rate Field

Live MLB Moneyline

Updated
MINAway starterBailey OberConfirmed
Model pickCHW moneyline65%Model 20260831_auto
CHWHome starterBryan HudsonConfirmed
MIN35%ML +125
Base model probability65%Moneyline only
CHW65%ML -147

AI Analyst Insight

AI agreementAnalyst agrees with base model
AI rank#6
Total lean · analyst-timeOver
Model-market gap · analyst-time7.5 pts

Model at 64.9% vs market 57.4% is a modest gap; CHW's better record (74-68) and Hudson's 3.03 ERA/8.34 K9 over Ober's 4.37 ERA/6.27 K9 justify siding home, but only at standard. Note MIN's 5.6 RPG conflicts with their .673 OPS, so team offense inputs look noisy. Rate Field at 1.067 PF plus Ober's contact profile nudges slightly over 8.5.

Projection Context

Projected margin1.2
Projected total9.2
Market total8.5
Total leanOver

Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.

Pitcher Strikeout Forecast

Final / frozen pregame forecast / Updated
Market
Lines
Bailey OberMIN starter / away
Projected K3.9Actual 6 K / Over 3.5
Best price at 3.53.5O -137 draftkings / U +110 betmgm5 books at this line
Model over 3.555%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.590%over
O 2.574%over
O 3.555%over
O 4.536%over
O 5.521%over
O 6.511%under
O 7.55%under
O 8.52%under
O 9.51%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 6 strikeouts.

Bryan HudsonCHW starter / home
Projected K1.9Actual 2 K
Market line · pregameN/ANo two-sided pregame line
Model over lineN/A
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.556%over
O 2.529%under
O 3.513%under
O 4.55%under
O 5.51%under
O 6.50%under
O 7.50%under
O 8.50%under
O 9.50%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 2 strikeouts.

Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.

Odds & Market Context Closing odds

Market consensus+125 / -147MIN / CHW moneyline
Run line context-1.5 (+140)Home spread price shown for context
Total context8.5O -115 / U -105
33 books32 ML24 run line24 total