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LAA 6 / BOS 1
LAALos Angeles Angels39%
BOSBoston Red Sox61%

at Fenway Park

Live MLB Moneyline

Updated
LAAAway starterReid DetmersConfirmed
Model pickBOS moneyline61%Model 20260907_auto
BOSHome starterPatrick SandovalConfirmed
LAA39%ML +123
Base model probability61%Moneyline only
BOS61%ML -146

AI Analyst Insight

AI agreementAnalyst agrees with base model
AI rank#8
Total lean · analyst-timeOver
Model-market gap · analyst-time4.6 pts

Boston is the better team (80-65 vs 54-90) but the pitching matchup cuts the other way: Detmers at 3.44 ERA/1.06 WHIP with 10.1 K/9 is well ahead of Sandoval's 4.41 ERA and 1.73 WHIP. Model's 61.2% overshoots the market's 56.6%; I'd stay closer to the market. Sandoval's baserunner rate at Fenway (PF 1.03) nudges me over 7.5.

Projection Context

Projected margin1.1
Projected total8.0
Market total7.5
Total leanOver

Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.

Pitcher Strikeout Forecast

Final / frozen pregame forecast / Updated
Market
Lines
Reid DetmersLAA starter / away
Projected K5.5
Best price at 5.55.5O -136 betrivers / U +111 draftkings6 books at this line
Model over 5.547%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.597%
O 2.590%
O 3.579%
O 4.563%
O 5.547%
O 6.532%
O 7.520%
O 8.512%
O 9.56%
O 10.53%
O 11.52%

Model probability that the starter exceeds each strikeout line.

Patrick SandovalBOS starter / home
Projected K5.2
Best price at 5.55.5O -142 fanduel / U +120 betrivers6 books at this line
Model over 5.542%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.596%
O 2.588%
O 3.575%
O 4.559%
O 5.542%
O 6.528%
O 7.517%
O 8.59%
O 9.55%
O 10.52%
O 11.51%

Model probability that the starter exceeds each strikeout line.

Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.

Odds & Market Context Closing odds

Market consensus+123 / -146LAA / BOS moneyline
Run line context-1.5 (+146)Home spread price shown for context
Total context7.5O -110 / U -110
33 books32 ML25 run line24 total