sharps.ggEvery pick graded
Back to board

MLB / mlb / live

LAA 2 / BOS 5
LAALos Angeles Angels48%
BOSBoston Red Sox52%

at Fenway Park

Live MLB Moneyline

Updated
LAAAway starterGrayson RodriguezConfirmed
Model pickBOS moneyline52%Model 20260907_auto
BOSHome starterBrayan BelloConfirmed
LAA48%ML +150
Base model probability52%Moneyline only
BOS52%ML -180

AI Analyst Insight

AI agreementAnalyst agrees with base model
AI rank#5
Total lean · analyst-timeNo total lean
Model-market gap · analyst-time0.3 pts

Model 61.1% and market 61.4% agree on BOS, so no comparison either way. Boston's starter is TBD with fallback stats (3.15 ERA, 10.45 K/9) that may not reflect the actual arm, and the top moneyline SHAP feature leans on that pitcher. Rodriguez's 6.03 ERA and 1.52 WHIP support BOS, but model total 8.07 sits on the 8.0 line.

pitcher data fallback

Projection Context

Projected margin0.0
Projected total9.1
Market total8.5
Total leanOver

Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.

Pitcher Strikeout Forecast

Final / frozen pregame forecast / Updated
Market
Lines
Grayson RodriguezLAA starter / away
Projected K4.4Actual 3 K / Under 4.5
Best price at 4.54.5O -103 betonlineag / U -113 draftkings6 books at this line
Model over 4.545%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.593%over
O 2.581%over
O 3.563%under
O 4.545%under
O 5.529%under
O 6.517%under
O 7.59%under
O 8.54%under
O 9.52%under
O 10.51%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 3 strikeouts.

Brayan BelloBOS starter / home
Projected K3.7Actual 7 K / Over 4.5
Best price at 4.54.5O +116 fanduel / U -135 betonlineag5 books at this line
Model over 4.532%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.588%over
O 2.571%over
O 3.551%over
O 4.532%over
O 5.518%over
O 6.59%over
O 7.54%under
O 8.52%under
O 9.51%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 7 strikeouts.

Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.

Odds & Market Context Closing odds

Market consensus+150 / -180LAA / BOS moneyline
Run line context-1.5 (+120)Home spread price shown for context
Total context8.5O -110 / U -111
33 books32 ML25 run line24 total