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BOS 1 / BAL 0
BOSBoston Red Sox46%
BALBaltimore Orioles54%

at Oriole Park at Camden Yards

Live MLB Moneyline

Updated
BOSAway starterRanger SuarezConfirmed
Model pickBAL moneyline54%Model 20260831_auto
BALHome starterShane BazConfirmed
BOS46%ML -115
Base model probability54%Moneyline only
BAL54%ML -102

AI Analyst Insight

AI agreementAnalyst disagrees with base model
AI rank#5
Total lean · analyst-timeUnder
Model-market gap · analyst-time5.7 pts

Model has BAL at 54.2% versus market 48.5%, but the underlying inputs favor Boston: better record (76-65 vs 69-72), better OPS (.736 vs .662), and Suarez's 3.64 ERA/1.24 WHIP over Baz's 4.01/1.35. BAL's listed 5.7 RPG alongside a .662 OPS looks internally inconsistent and may be inflating the model's home lean. Camden's 0.94 park factor plus two mid-3s/low-4s starters argues under the 8.0.

Projection Context

Projected margin0.4
Projected total9.2
Market total8.0
Total leanOver

Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.

Pitcher Strikeout Forecast

Final / frozen pregame forecast / Updated
Market
Lines
Ranger SuarezBOS starter / away
Projected K4.7Actual 3 K / Under 5.5
Best price at 5.55.5O +100 betonlineag / U -122 fanduel6 books at this line
Model over 5.534%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.594%over
O 2.584%over
O 3.568%under
O 4.551%under
O 5.534%under
O 6.521%under
O 7.512%under
O 8.56%under
O 9.53%under
O 10.51%under
O 11.51%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 3 strikeouts.

Shane BazBAL starter / home
Projected K4.9Actual 6 K / Over 4.5
Best price at 4.54.5O -139 betonlineag / U +125 draftkings5 books at this line
Model over 4.553%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.595%over
O 2.585%over
O 3.570%over
O 4.553%over
O 5.536%over
O 6.522%under
O 7.513%under
O 8.57%under
O 9.53%under
O 10.51%under
O 11.51%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 6 strikeouts.

Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.

Odds & Market Context Closing odds

Market consensus-115 / -102BOS / BAL moneyline
Run line context1.5 (-170)Home spread price shown for context
Total context8.0O -113 / U -107
33 books32 ML25 run line24 total