MLB / mlb / live
LAD 4 / MIL 7LADLos Angeles Dodgers44%
MILMilwaukee Brewers56%
at American Family Field
Live MLB Moneyline
UpdatedLADAway starterYoshinobu YamamotoConfirmed
Model pickMIL moneyline56%Model 20260928_auto
MILHome starterLogan HendersonConfirmed
LAD44%ML -135
Base model probability56%Moneyline only
MIL56%ML +114
AI Analyst Insight
AI agreementAnalyst disagrees with base model
AI rank#2
Total lean · analyst-timeUnder
Model-market gap · analyst-time11.5 pts
Market has LAD at -130 while the model puts MIL at 56% — an 11.5-point gap I'd side with the market on, especially with Yamamoto (2.53 ERA, 0.87 WHIP, 185 IP) carrying a far larger workload base than Henderson's 10-start sample. Team lines are also inconsistent (MIL .972 OPS on 4.4 RPG), so I discount the model's offense inputs. Two sub-2.60 ERA starters in a 0.95 park argues under 7.
Large model-market gapace matchup
Projection Context
Projected margin0.3
Projected total8.2
Market total7.0
Total leanOver
Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.
Odds & Market Context Closing odds
Market consensus-135 / +114LAD / MIL moneyline
Run line context1.5 (-160)Home spread price shown for context
Total context7.0O -103 / U -120
31 books30 ML24 run line23 total