Starter comparison is clearly Cleveland: Messick's 2.56 ERA, 1.06 WHIP and 9.32 K/9 over 186.1 IP against Peralta's 4.42 ERA and 1.33 WHIP. Market makes TBR a 55% favorite while the model only has 51.9%, so both sides of the fence are near a coin flip; I'll take the plus money on the arm. Model's 7.94 total sits a run above the 7.0 line with the better pitcher on the mound, so under.