MLB / mlb / live
LAD 4 / ATL 1LADLos Angeles Dodgers46%
ATLAtlanta Braves54%
at Truist Park
Live MLB Moneyline
UpdatedLADAway starterTyler GlasnowConfirmed
Model pickATL moneyline54%Model 20260928_auto
ATLHome starterTyler MahleConfirmed
LAD46%ML -152
Base model probability54%Moneyline only
ATL54%ML +128
AI Analyst Insight
AI agreementAnalyst disagrees with base model
AI rank#2
Total lean · analyst-timeUnder
Model-market gap · analyst-time12.3 pts
Model has ATL at 54.4% against a market implying 42.1% — a 12-point gap with no clear justification. LAD carries the better record (100-62 vs 94-68), 5.0 RPG vs 4.0, and Glasnow's 11.92 K/9 and 0.95 WHIP outclass Mahle's 3.99 ERA, 1.23 WHIP. Side with the market. Pitcher-friendly Truist (0.915 PF) plus Glasnow argues under 7.5, against the model's 8.25.
Large model-market gapoffense defense mismatch
Projection Context
Projected margin0.2
Projected total8.2
Market total7.5
Total leanOver
Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.
Odds & Market Context Closing odds
Market consensus-152 / +128LAD / ATL moneyline
Run line context1.5 (-135)Home spread price shown for context
Total context7.5O -110 / U -110
31 books30 ML23 run line23 total