MLB / mlb / live
SDP 3 / MIL 4SDPSan Diego Padres47%
MILMilwaukee Brewers53%
at American Family Field
Live MLB Moneyline
UpdatedSDPAway starterMichael KingConfirmed
Model pickMIL moneyline53%Model 20260928_auto
MILHome starterLogan HendersonConfirmed
SDP47%ML +114
Base model probability53%Moneyline only
MIL53%ML -136
AI Analyst Insight
AI agreementAnalyst agrees with base model
AI rank#2
Total lean · analyst-timeUnder
Model-market gap · analyst-time3.0 pts
Market (56.2%) is slightly higher on Milwaukee than the model (53.2%), and the 103-59 record plus Henderson's 2.47 ERA and 0.84 WHIP support the home side. King at 3.21 ERA is quality opposition, so margin should stay tight. Model's 8.11-run total sits over a full run above the 7.0 line despite an ace matchup in a 0.95 park; I take the under.
ace matchup
Projection Context
Projected margin0.1
Projected total8.2
Market total7.0
Total leanOver
Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.
Odds & Market Context Closing odds
Market consensus+114 / -136SDP / MIL moneyline
Run line context-1.5 (+162)Home spread price shown for context
Total context7.0O -114 / U -106
33 books32 ML25 run line24 total