MLB / mlb / live
MIL 3 / SDP 4MILMilwaukee Brewers44%
SDPSan Diego Padres56%
at Petco Park
Live MLB Moneyline
UpdatedMILAway starterDustin MayProbable
Model pickSDP moneyline56%Model 20260928_auto
SDPHome starterNick PivettaProbable
MIL44%ML +118
Base model probability56%Moneyline only
SDP56%ML -141
AI Analyst Insight
AI agreementAnalyst agrees with base model
AI rank#1
Total lean · analyst-timeUnder
Model-market gap · analyst-time0.2 pts
Model 56.2% and market 56.1% agree on SDP, so no comparison either way. Pivetta's 2.86 ERA and 10.9 K/9 at Petco (PF 0.962) outclass May's 4.70 ERA, 1.32 WHIP. Team OPS lines look inconsistent with the RPG figures, so I weight pitching and park: lean under 7.5.
Projection Context
Projected margin0.5
Projected total8.0
Market total7.5
Total leanOver
Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.
Odds & Market Context Closing odds
Market consensus+118 / -141MIL / SDP moneyline
Run line context-1.5 (+155)Home spread price shown for context
Total context7.5O -111 / U -110
33 books32 ML25 run line24 total