MLB / mlb / live
ATL 3 / LAD 5ATLAtlanta Braves22%
LADLos Angeles Dodgers78%
at UNIQLO Field at Dodger Stadium
Live MLB Moneyline
UpdatedATLAway starterDylan DoddConfirmed
Model pickLAD moneyline78%Model 20260928_auto
LADHome starterTarik SkubalConfirmed
ATL22%ML +184
Base model probability78%Moneyline only
LAD78%ML -221
AI Analyst Insight
AI agreementAnalyst agrees with base model
AI rank#2
Total lean · analyst-timeNo total lean
Model-market gap · analyst-time9.4 pts
Side agrees with market but not the magnitude: model 76.2% vs market-implied 66.8% is a 9-point gap, and the comparison leans on an unresolved ATL starter. Skubal's 2.72 ERA, 0.96 WHIP and 10.55 K/9 justify LAD favoritism at home. With the away SP a fallback profile (4.91 ERA), the 8.99 total projection is not actionable against the 8.5 line.
pitcher data fallbackLarge model-market gap
Projection Context
Projected margin2.2
Projected total9.9
Market total8.5
Total leanOver
Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.
Odds & Market Context Closing odds
Market consensus+184 / -221ATL / LAD moneyline
Run line context-1.5 (-110)Home spread price shown for context
Total context8.5O -105 / U -115
33 books32 ML24 run line24 total