MLB / mlb / live
CLE 9 / CHW 5CLECleveland Guardians56%
CHWChicago White Sox44%
at Rate Field
Live MLB Moneyline
UpdatedCLEAway starterParker MessickProbable
Model pickCLE moneyline56%Model 20260928_auto
CHWHome starterHagen SmithProbable
CLE56%ML -115
Base model probability56%Moneyline only
CHW44%ML -102
AI Analyst Insight
AI agreementAnalyst disagrees with base model
AI rankUnranked
Total lean · analyst-timeUnder
Model-market gap · analyst-time4.4 pts
Near coin-flip market (+101/-109) and the model's 55.5% CLE leans on Hagen Smith's workload data despite CHW holding a large offensive comparison (.729 OPS, 6.5 RPG vs .600, 5.3). Smith's 1.29 ERA over 28 IP is a thin sample, so no conviction either way; slight home-side lean. Both starters sub-2.60 ERA supports under 7.5 even in a 1.067 park.
ace matchup
Projection Context
Projected margin0.7
Projected total7.4
Market total7.0
Total leanOver
Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.
Odds & Market Context Closing odds
Market consensus-115 / -102CLE / CHW moneyline
Run line context1.5 (-181)Home spread price shown for context
Total context7.0O -110 / U -110
31 books30 ML24 run line23 total