MLB / mlb / live
CHW 4 / CLE 3CHWChicago White Sox44%
CLECleveland Guardians56%
at Progressive Field
Live MLB Moneyline
UpdatedCHWAway starterAnthony KayConfirmed
Model pickCLE moneyline56%Model 20260928_auto
CLEHome starterGavin WilliamsConfirmed
CHW44%ML +130
Base model probability56%Moneyline only
CLE56%ML -155
AI Analyst Insight
AI agreementAnalyst agrees with base model
AI rank#2
Total lean · analyst-timeOver
Model-market gap · analyst-time2.3 pts
Model (56.1%) and market (58.4%) both land on Cleveland, and the starter comparison supports it: Williams at 3.76 ERA with 12.11 K/9 and a 1.11 WHIP versus Kay at 4.44 ERA, 7.35 K/9, 1.37 WHIP. Progressive Field at 0.98 is near neutral. Market total of 6.5 looks low against 5.3 and 6.5 RPG offenses and Kay's baserunner rate, so slight over, though the model's 7.80 is too aggressive.
Projection Context
Projected margin0.3
Projected total7.8
Market total6.5
Total leanOver
Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.
Odds & Market Context Closing odds
Market consensus+130 / -155CHW / CLE moneyline
Run line context-1.5 (+145)Home spread price shown for context
Total context6.5O -120 / U +100
33 books32 ML25 run line24 total