MLB / mlb / live
NYY 0 / TBR 1NYYNew York Yankees42%
TBRTampa Bay Rays58%
at Tropicana Field
Live MLB Moneyline
UpdatedNYYAway starterGerrit ColeConfirmed
Model pickTBR moneyline58%Model 20260928_auto
TBRHome starterDrew RasmussenConfirmed
NYY42%ML +118
Base model probability58%Moneyline only
TBR58%ML -139
AI Analyst Insight
AI agreementAnalyst agrees with base model
AI rank#1
Total lean · analyst-timeUnder
Model-market gap · analyst-time3.2 pts
Model 58.4% vs market 55.2% on TBR — close enough. Rasmussen's 2.67 ERA and 0.91 WHIP comparison Cole's 3.61/1.10, and Tampa is 98-64 at home. Model's 8.13 total sits over a 7.0 line; with both starters missing bats (9.1 and 9.28 K/9) in a neutral park, I lean under.
Projection Context
Projected margin0.5
Projected total8.0
Market total7.0
Total leanOver
Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.
Odds & Market Context Closing odds
Market consensus+118 / -139NYY / TBR moneyline
Run line context-1.5 (+161)Home spread price shown for context
Total context7.0O -114 / U -108
33 books32 ML25 run line24 total