MLB / mlb / live
TBR 4 / NYY 3TBRTampa Bay Rays44%
NYYNew York Yankees56%
at Yankee Stadium
Live MLB Moneyline
UpdatedTBRAway starterNick MartinezConfirmed
Model pickNYY moneyline56%Model 20260928_auto
NYYHome starterMax FriedConfirmed
TBR44%ML +145
Base model probability56%Moneyline only
NYY56%ML -175
AI Analyst Insight
AI agreementAnalyst agrees with base model
AI rank#1
Total lean · analyst-timeUnder
Model-market gap · analyst-time4.1 pts
Market (60.3%) sits above the model's 56.2% on NYY, and I side with the market: Fried's 2.80 ERA/0.99 WHIP with 8.31 K/9 is a clear comparison over Martinez's contact-reliant 5.45 K/9. Both starters under 3.50 ERA in a 0.93 park factor venue argues under 7.5, against the model's 7.82. TBR's 3.8 RPG despite a .802 OPS is an odd split worth discounting.
ace matchup
Projection Context
Projected margin0.5
Projected total7.8
Market total7.0
Total leanOver
Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.
Odds & Market Context Closing odds
Market consensus+145 / -175TBR / NYY moneyline
Run line context-1.5 (+131)Home spread price shown for context
Total context7.0O -111 / U -108
33 books32 ML25 run line24 total