MLB / mlb / live
PHI 4 / ATL 3PHIPhiladelphia Phillies46%
ATLAtlanta Braves54%
at Truist Park
Live MLB Moneyline
UpdatedPHIAway starterCristopher SánchezConfirmed
Model pickATL moneyline54%Model 20260928_auto
ATLHome starterTyler MahleConfirmed
PHI46%ML -114
Base model probability54%Moneyline only
ATL54%ML -104
AI Analyst Insight
AI agreementAnalyst agrees with base model
AI rank#1
Total lean · analyst-timeUnder
Model-market gap · analyst-time5.8 pts
Model's 8.62 total is 1.6 runs above the 7.0 market line, hard to justify with Sanchez at 2.91 ERA/10.04 K9 and Truist at a 0.915 park factor plus a Philadelphia offense at 3.2 RPG and .570 OPS. Under is the cleaner call. Side is near pick'em: ATL's offense comparison (4.0 RPG, .789 OPS) and home field roughly offset the Mahle-Sanchez gap, so only a lean.
total far from market
Projection Context
Projected margin0.2
Projected total9.0
Market total7.0
Total leanOver
Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.
Odds & Market Context Closing odds
Market consensus-114 / -104PHI / ATL moneyline
Run line context1.5 (-180)Home spread price shown for context
Total context7.0O -116 / U -104
33 books32 ML24 run line24 total