MLB / mlb / live
CHW 7 / HOU 3CHWChicago White Sox44%
HOUHouston Astros56%
at Daikin Park
Live MLB Moneyline
UpdatedCHWAway starterSean BurkeConfirmed
Model pickHOU moneyline56%Model 20260928_auto
HOUHome starterHunter BrownConfirmed
CHW44%ML +128
Base model probability56%Moneyline only
HOU56%ML -152
AI Analyst Insight
AI agreementAnalyst agrees with base model
AI rank#3
Total lean · analyst-timeUnder
Model-market gap · analyst-time2.0 pts
Model (56.2%) sits just under the market's 58.2% implied on HOU, so no side comparison; the mismatch flag is real since CHW has the better record (84-78) and offense (6.5 RPG, .729 OPS). Where the model misses is the total: 8.66 predicted against a 7.5 line in a 0.81 park factor venue with Brown (3.19 ERA, 10.4 K/9) vs Burke (3.34, 1.20 WHIP). Under is the cleaner position.
offense defense mismatchextreme parkace matchup
Projection Context
Projected margin0.4
Projected total8.5
Market total7.5
Total leanOver
Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.
Odds & Market Context Closing odds
Market consensus+128 / -152CHW / HOU moneyline
Run line context-1.5 (+144)Home spread price shown for context
Total context7.5O -110 / U -108
33 books32 ML25 run line24 total