sharps.ggEvery pick graded
Back to board

MLB / mlb / live

NYM 6 / WSN 7
NYMNew York Mets47%
WSNWashington Nationals53%

at Nationals Park

Live MLB Moneyline

Updated
NYMAway starterJefry YanConfirmed
Model pickWSN moneyline53%Model 20260921_auto
WSNHome starterAndrew AlvarezConfirmed
NYM47%ML -110
Base model probability53%Moneyline only
WSN53%ML -110

AI Analyst Insight

AI agreementAnalyst agrees with base model
AI rank#6
Total lean · analyst-timeNo total lean
Model-market gap · analyst-timeN/A

WSN carries the clear offensive comparison (.820 OPS, 4.7 RPG vs NYM's .736 and 3.9) plus home field, so the model's 52.6% looks conservative. But the Mets starter is TBD with fallback stats and there is no market odds to anchor against, so this stays a lean. No total view without a market line; the ace-matchup profile (3.17/3.42 ERAs) would argue under if one existed.

pitcher data fallbackace matchupmarket data missing

Projection Context

Projected margin0.1
Projected total8.3
Market total8.5
Total leanUnder

Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.

Pitcher Strikeout Forecast

Final / frozen pregame forecast / Updated
Market
Lines
Jefry YanNYM starter / awayThin data
Projected K3.2Actual 1 K
Market line · pregameN/ANo two-sided pregame line
Model over lineN/A
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.582%under
O 2.561%under
O 3.539%under
O 4.522%under
O 5.511%under
O 6.55%under
O 7.52%under
O 8.51%under
O 9.50%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 1 strikeouts.

Andrew AlvarezWSN starter / home
Projected K4.9Actual 7 K / Over 4.5
Best price at 4.54.5O -125 fanduel / U +110 betmgm5 books at this line
Model over 4.554%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.595%over
O 2.586%over
O 3.571%over
O 4.554%over
O 5.537%over
O 6.523%over
O 7.513%under
O 8.57%under
O 9.53%under
O 10.52%under
O 11.51%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 7 strikeouts.

Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.

Odds & Market Context Closing odds

Market consensus-110 / -110NYM / WSN moneyline
Run line context1.5 (-179)Home spread price shown for context
Total context8.5O -120 / U +100
33 books32 ML24 run line24 total