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PHI 3 / WSN 6
PHIPhiladelphia Phillies47%
WSNWashington Nationals53%

at Nationals Park

Live MLB Moneyline

Updated
PHIAway starterCristopher SánchezConfirmed
Model pickWSN moneyline53%Model 20260914_auto
WSNHome starterJackson KentConfirmed
PHI47%ML -225
Base model probability53%Moneyline only
WSN53%ML +184

AI Analyst Insight

AI agreementAnalyst disagrees with base model
AI rank#3
Total lean · analyst-timeUnder
Model-market gap · analyst-time18.9 pts

Model's 53% on Washington is 19 points above the market's 34% implied, and the pitching gap doesn't support it: Sanchez has 187.1 IP at 2.79 ERA with 10.09 K/9 and 1.21 WHIP, while Kent carries a 6.59 ERA and 1.83 WHIP over 27.1 IP. PHI also holds the better record (83-67 vs 70-81). Sanchez plus a 0.959 park factor argues under 8.0 despite Kent's profile.

Large model-market gapoffense defense mismatch

Projection Context

Projected margin0.1
Projected total8.6
Market total8.0
Total leanOver

Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.

Pitcher Strikeout Forecast

Final / frozen pregame forecast / Updated
Market
Lines
Cristopher SánchezPHI starter / away
Projected K5.8Actual 5 K / Under 6.5
Best price at 6.56.5O -108 fanduel / U +101 draftkings7 books at this line
Model over 6.536%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.597%over
O 2.592%over
O 3.581%over
O 4.567%over
O 5.551%under
O 6.536%under
O 7.523%under
O 8.514%under
O 9.58%under
O 10.54%under
O 11.52%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 5 strikeouts.

Jackson KentWSN starter / home
Projected K4.3Actual 4 K / Over 3.5
Best price at 3.53.5O -110 betmgm / U +102 fanduel6 books at this line
Model over 3.562%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.592%over
O 2.580%over
O 3.562%over
O 4.543%under
O 5.527%under
O 6.515%under
O 7.58%under
O 8.54%under
O 9.52%under
O 10.51%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 4 strikeouts.

Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.

Odds & Market Context Closing odds

Market consensus-225 / +184PHI / WSN moneyline
Run line context1.5 (+105)Home spread price shown for context
Total context8.0O -114 / U -107
33 books32 ML24 run line24 total